The x-factor against the x-factor
This discussion of the Kansas City Chiefs’ rushing attack against sub packages is all well and good. As we have seen, when teams have played light boxes and/or soft coverages against them, daring them to run the football and hoping to turn Patrick Mahomes into a spectator, the Chiefs have complied this season.
And with success.
But the Chiefs are not playing the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, nor are they playing the Denver Broncos, or the Baltimore Ravens, or the Miami Dolphins, or the Houston Texans, or the myriad small creatures trying to tie them to the ground. (Listen, my contract requires that I work in at least one Pink Floyd reference per article to annoy Doug Farrar).
No, the Chiefs are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And their run defense is really good.
How good? It’s one of the best in the league. Charles McDonald, one of the smartest football minds I know, argued this week that for the Chiefs to win one of the things they have to do is not take the bait. To avoid forcing the running game. As he argued:
Tampa Bay is a tough, tough team to run on, boasting one of the strongest run defenses in the NFL, even after losing star nose tackle Vita Vea for a large chunk of the season due to an injury. The Buccaneers defense led the league in expected points added per rushing play (-0.179) and yards per carry (3.6).
Running the ball will probably be a waste of time for the Chiefs, especially with the injuries they’ve suffered along the offensive line (and, also, Vea is back from that injury). It seems like the Chiefs know this about the Buccaneers defense as well. Last time they played, the Chiefs had only 16 carries from their running backs compared to 49 passing attempts from Mahomes.
Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be back for the Super Bowl, but that doesn’t mean the Chiefs need to run him into the ground. Unless the unforeseen happens and the Bucs secondary absolutely smothers Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game, the Chiefs need to stay away from running the ball in their quest to repeat as champs.
Those numbers get even better with Vea in the lineup. As Doug Farrar pointed out in the Touchdown Wire Matchup Podcast prior to the NFC Championship game, Vea has made a great run defense elite: “How good is he against the run? This season, when Vea is on the field, the Bucs allowed 2.8 yards per carry. Without him, 4.0. Without Vea, Tampa Bay allowed a Rushing EPA of -0.17 — they were still good — and with him, they allowed a Rushing EPA of -0.32.”
That might have led to, as McDonald pointed out, the Chiefs not taking the bait back in Week 12. They ran the ball just 17 times in that game – ten of those coming in the second half as they were trying to salt the contest away – and were more than happy to put the ball in the air. When they did try and test the Buccaneers’ run defense, and even some of those lighter packages, Tampa Bay still held their ground on many such occasions.
Take this play, with Edwards-Helaire testing the right side of this Tampa Bay 3-3-5 package:
Linebacker Anthony Nelson does a great job of setting the edge on this snap, forcing the rookie to stay inside, and the help arrives in the form of linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White. More on them in a moment. This play is held to a two-yard gain.
Or take this example:
The Chiefs try a split-zone design to test the Buccaneers’ 3-3-5 defense. But Ndamukong Suh stops this play before it gets going. Right tackle Mike Remmers has a tough task, trying to get to Suh, but the defensive lineman drives Remmers into the ball-carrier and the play goes for no gain. (The flag that came in late was on Remmers for holding, adding insult to injury). The result was a third-down stop that forced a Chiefs’ punt.
On their ensuing possession Tom Brady would hit Mike Evans for a touchdown to cut into the Chiefs’ lead.
Tampa Bay’s run defense is really, really good. With player up front like Suh, and perhaps the best tandem of linebackers in the game in White and David, they can stop the run even with these light packages. What they did against Kansas City back in Week 12, perhaps due to the Chiefs’ deciding not to test that run game as much, might be a foreshadowing of this Super Bowl. Yes, Kansas City still had a few good run plays against lighter groups back in Week 12, such as a ten-yard gain by Le’Veon Bell prior to halftime on a split-zone design, or another ten-yard gain by Edwards-Helaire early in the third quarter, both of which came against this 3-3-5 group. But their best rushing attempt of the contest? This play:
A speed option look on 3rd-and-one with Mahomes keeping the ball for 17 yards and a first down. It came at the expense of Tampa Bay’s base 4-3 defense, and given what happened in the Divisional Round, and the status of Mahomes’ toe, we might not see it again this season.
So where does that leave up, after more words than my editors would like to see? Uncertain, is perhaps the best way of putting it. Teams that have dared the Kansas City Chiefs to run the football this season, as a means of limiting what Patrick Mahomes can do, have at times found an offense that is willing to comply. That has led to some big gains for the Chiefs on the ground this year.
But the Buccaneers’ defensive front is a different beast, and as we saw back in Week 12 – without Vita Vea – they can stop the run with lighter packages. That might mean the Chiefs put the ball in Mahomes’ hands more, just like we saw in Week 12.
Which is where they might want to be all along.