A reading from the book of Belichick
Every time I tackle this question my mind drifts northward, towards where I grew up. I think of the New England Patriots, and defensive genius Bill Belichick. Belichick has grappled with this same question multiple times over the years, with mixed results. He was able to beat Patrick Mahomes and company twice back in 2018, first in the regular season and then in the AFC Championship game. But he has lost to them each of the past two meetings.
In the two wins, Belichick’s defense allowed 40 and 31 points respectively. It was not a complete shutdown, but it was enough.
In the regular season meeting back in 2018, Belichick’s focus seemed to be tight end Travis Kelce. We all know the Belichickian line of “take away what they do best,” and the Patriots seemed to focus on stopping Kelce in that meeting. Take this interception thrown by Mahomes near the end of the first half:
The Patriots in essence use three players on Kelce. First linebacker Dont’a Hightower chips him off the line of scrimmage – no free releases right? – and then the Patriots use an inside-outside bracket on him between Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. Mahomes gets flushed from the pocket (by none other than Hightower who remains such a core component of Belichick’s defenses) and Mahomes’ late throw is intercepted.
Of course, any time you dedicate this much attention to a single player, it might cost you. As it did Belichick and the Patriots later in the game:
On this play from the explosive fourth quarter of their meeting in 2018 New England again dedicates three players to Kelce. Hightower drops in his direction off the snap, and both Jason and Devin McCourty bracket him off the line.
That leaves Duron Harmon in the middle of the field with Tyreek Hill running a vertical route right at him, and it ends as you might expect. With Hill in the end zone and Belichick throwing his Microsoft Surface Table and then slamming the phone.
The Hill touchdown might be one of the reasons why in recent years Belichick has used more zone concepts, robber concepts and matching elements in how he handles the Chiefs’ passing game. This interception of Mahomes from the 2019 regular season is a great example of one such design in action.
Kansas City runs a crossing route concept, with Hill and Demarcus Robinson racing by each other from opposite sides of the field, but it is J.C. Jackson who comes down with the interception:
How did this come about? The Patriots use a 1-3-7 package – more on sub packages in a moment and leave Stephon Gilmore on an island at the top of the screen against Sammy Watkins. Then they implement a Belichick/Nick Saban coverage known as 1-Cross, which is a Cover-1 coverage that uses a safety — in this case Devin McCourty — as a robber right at the first-down marker:
What is the impact of this coverage on the play? When Mahomes drops he sees Hill racing across the field from right to left toward Devin McCourty, with Jonathan Jones in coverage. He then assumes that Hill is going to run into a manufactured double coverage, so his eyes come to Robinson in his crossing route working from the left, with Jackson in single coverage:
There is one more twist coming. Because Jones, instead of running with Hill as Mahomes expects, simply passes him off to McCourty and peels back to become the robber. This creates the double team, but not the one Mahomes expected:
Now, Jones stays over the top of Robinson, which allows Jackson to cut underneath the receiver and make the interception.
That, plus simply playing soft zone coverage and forcing checkdowns, is the latest evolution in Belichick’s recipe for slowing down the Chiefs:
There is one other element to this, as alluded to in the mention of sub packages.
Force them to run.