This year’s picks went much better than last year’s. We finished with a winning record regardless of the Super Bowl outcome, but it’s impossible to do picks all year and not grab the biggest one of all.

To the Super Bowl pick!

Championship round record: 1-1

Postseason record: 6-4

Regular-season record: 132-121

Overall record: 138-125

Point spreads were provided by Bet MGM. (HOME TEAM in all caps).

Super Bowl: KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. San Francisco

How the Chiefs win

It’s hard to imagine Kansas City wants to get in a defensive struggle. The key for them will be getting out to a fast start and making the 49ers put away their run game. While San Francisco can throw it if they need to, it’s certainly the preferred option for the Chiefs with Chris Jones and Frank Clark on the defensive line to wreak havoc on a suddenly one-dimensional 49ers team.

For their offense, it all falls on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. His ability to extend plays and find open receivers when plays get off schedule is paramount to beating this 49ers defense, which thrives on its pass rush. If Mahomes can mitigate that and get the ball to his playmakers, Kansas City is impossible to stop. Mix in a couple of screens and quick throws to the boundary and the Chiefs should be able to light up the scoreboard while relying on its defense to come up with a couple stops.

How the 49ers win 

Not hitting the panic button if Kansas City gets up a couple scores early is vital. They have to trust their defense to get their arms around the Chiefs offense and still limit them to 30 or so points. That’ll start with the pass rush getting Mahomes on the ground a couple times and not letting them get ahead of the sticks where the threat of running back Damien Williams still looms. If the secondary doesn’t allow receivers to get in behind them for free runs down the field, the defense should be able to limit Kansas City to a reasonable point total.

On offense, Jimmy Garoppolo has to shine. His ability to make the Chiefs pay for selling out to stop the run is going to be the difference in whether the 49ers can keep up with Kansas City. If he can, he has playmakers like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle who can create yards after the catch. Completing those throws and softening up the defense to open up the run game can make the 49ers one of the most prolific offenses in the league, and at that point it may not matter how well their defense plays.

Pick: 49ers (+1.5)

Prediction: 49ers 38, Chiefs 34