Sun Belt Tournament: Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State odds, picks and predictions

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves (17-15) and Appalachian State Mountaineers (27-5) tangle in a Sunday semifinal game of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament in Pensacola, Fla. Tip-off at the Pensacola Bay Center will be at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook ‘s lines around the Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Arkansas State, which lost at Appalachian State in the regular-season finale, is the No. 4 seed in the SBC bracket. The Red Wolves advanced by beating Louisiana 89-62, easily covering as a 4-point favorite. Since Feb. 10, the Wolves are 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread(ATS).

Top-seeded Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 85-80 in overtime on Saturday. The favored-by-13 Mountaineers led by 10 with 10:48 to play, but let that lead evaporate by the end of regulation. The result snapped a 6-game ATS win streak and extended what is now an 8-game win streak SU.

– Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Arkansas State +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Appalachian State -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas State +4.5 (+100) | Appalachian State -4.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State picks and predictions

Prediction

Appalachian State 73, Arkansas State 67

Moneyline

Appalachian State is the lean side here but should only be an actionable play up to about -210. PASS.

Against the spread

The Mountaineers have won 5 in a row ATS when facing the Wolves. In the March 1 meeting, Appalachian State led by more-than-10 the entire last 25 minutes.

Appalachian State has trended toward improving 3-point defense of late, and that figures as a big key against an Arkansas State team which ranks 34th in the nation in perimeter frequency (BartTorvik). The Mountaineers held the Wolves to a 5-of-26 (19.2%) mark in the March 1 game. Arkansas State has been a below-average team in distance shooting on the road and in neutral-site games.

On a sliver of a lean at this number, TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS -4.5 (+100).

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Over/Under

This contest figures to be near average on the tempo scale, and it likely features the Sun Belt’s most efficient offense (Arkansas State) against the circuit’s most efficient defense (Appalachian State).

The Wolves typically do well on the offensive glass and in knocking down 3s. Look for the league’s No. 1 seed to have a counter, tamping down those point-spiral factors. Per KenPom, Appalachian State also ranks 2nd in the nation in free-throw frequency.

The total here is 4 1/2 points lower than it was in Appalachian State’s home game against the Wolves March 1. But a game flow delivering this one to the high 130s/low 140s has enough probability to make the UNDER 145.5 (-105) — as listed on FanDuel Sportsbook — the value play.

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