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The Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt) and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-2, 7-1) meet Saturday for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Kickoff from Cajun Field in Lafayette, Louisiana, is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Marshall vs. Louisiana odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Marshall is making its first appearance in the Sun Belt title game after just moving to the conference in 2022. Louisiana has been selected 5 times, going 1-2 in the previous 3 games played. It was to play in 2020 against Coastal Carolina, but that game was wiped out due to the COVID-19 global pandemic.
Louisiana’s lone title game victory came in 2021 against Appalachian State in a home game, winning as a 2.5-point underdog with the Under (52.5) hitting. Ironically, the Ragin’ Cajuns would go on to face the Thundering Herd in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl on Dec. 18, 2021, winning 36-21 as a 4-point favorite while the Over (54.5) cashed.
These teams have met just once in the regular season, with Louisiana going to Huntington and winning 23-13 as a 10-point underdog in October 2022 as the Under (45.5) hit. This will be their first meeting in Lafayette.
Marshall capped off the season with 6 straight wins and 4 consecutive covers. It was an impressive 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, while splitting the Over-Under 6-6.
Louisiana suffered a 24-22 loss to South Alabama at home on Nov. 16, its only blemish since a 41-33 home setback vs. Tulane Sept. 21. The Cajuns were 5-1 ATS in the final 6 games, and the Over cashed in 3 of the final 4 outings.
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Marshall at Louisiana odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 9:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marshall +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Louisiana -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Marshall +5.5 (-105) | Louisiana -5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Marshall at Louisiana picks and predictions
Prediction
Louisiana 36, Marshall 31
Moneyline
Louisiana (-225) is on the expensive side, costing more than 2 times the potential return. That’s quite a bit of risk for a standalone wager, even if the game is being played on its home turf.
If you were to toss this into a multi-leg parlay, it can be excused, but it is too expensive betting the Cajuns straight up.
PASS.
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Against the spread
BACK MARSHALL +5.5 (-105) lightly as this should be a very good and close game.
Marshall is 10-1-1 ATS this season, so it’s hard to go against that. The Thundering Herd went 5-0-1 ATS on the road this season, too, with covers at No. 8 Ohio State and Virginia Tech. It’s only non-cover came against Louisiana-Monroe at home Nov. 2.
Louisiana should still be able to get the job done at home. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 4-2 straight up at home this season but were just 2-4 ATS in those contests.
Over/Under
OVER 58.5 (-110) is a strong play in this Sun Belt title game as both of these teams can move the ball.
Louisiana QB Ben Wooldridge accounted for 22 total touchdowns — 17 passing, 5 rushing. The Ragin’ Cajuns were good for 446.3 total yards per game, and 35.6 PPG. Defensively, it is just so-so, especially against the run.
Marshall QB Braylon Braxton is similar to Wooldridge, throwing for 17 TDs and running in for 4. The Herd rolled up 200.4 rushing yards per game, and they’ll look to take advantage of the Cajuns mediocre run defense. Defensively, though, Marshall allowed 388.0 total yards and 189.3 rushing yards per game.
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