Straight-up NFL picks, Week 16: Road winners and a de facto playoff game for the Jaguars and Jets

Jaguars-Jets on Thursday night is a de facto playoff eliminator. Eagles-Cowboys isn’t, but it’s gonna be fun — even without Jalen Hurts.

Week 16 of the NFL season will parse down a playoff field where only five teams — the Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals — have been eliminated from the postseason. That means plenty of opportunities for needy teams in a slate filled with road underdogs.

That starts on Thursday night with a de facto playoff game between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have rallied from 2-6 to make waves in the fecund water park kiddie pool that is the AFC South. The Jets, on the other hand, have slid in the opposite direction and now have to rely on Zach Wilson to reverse those fortunes. That’s a big ask — and it’s got our three-man panel split on the outcome of Week 16’s first game.

That’s one of only three games in which our experts didn’t see eye-to-eye. A do-or-die game between the ugly offenses of the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns is a concern. So is a tragic showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams that once looked like a possible Super Bowl preview but instead is a battle between two putrid teams who don’t even own their upcoming top five draft picks.

Here’s our full slate of picks for Week 16, with explanations below.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Jaguars at Jets Jets Jaguars Jaguars
Bills at Bears Bills Bills Bills
Falcons at Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Seahawks at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Giants at Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Saints at Browns Browns Saints Browns
Bengals at Patriots Bengals Bengals Bengals
Texans at Titans Titans Titans Titans
Lions at Panthers Lions Lions Lions
Commanders at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Eagles at Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Raiders at Steelers Steelers Raiders Raiders
Packers at Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Broncos at Rams Broncos Broncos Rams
Buccaneers at Cardinals Bucs Bucs Bucs
Chargers at Colts Chargers Chargers Chargers
Last week: 11-5 11-5 12-4
Year to date: 141-81-2 140-82-2 127-95-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.