As the youngest coach in the NFL and someone with a reputation of being an offensive innovator, there’s a perception that Sean McVay is one of the more aggressive coaches around. That’s simply not the case. It hasn’t been true for the last four years and it certainly hasn’t been true this season, either.
In fact, McVay’s lack of aggression on fourth down is hurting the Rams this season, according to the analytics. Ben Baldwin shared a couple of charts on Monday showing how aggressive each team is in situations where they should be going for it on fourth down. The Rams are tied for the lowest rate in the NFL among teams with at least three such opportunities, going for it zero times in six chances.
Furthermore, the Rams are losing about 5% in win probability per game by kicking it in situations where they should be going for it. Take a look at the charts below, and you’ll see the Rams rank on the wrong end of each one.
Another season of Sean McVay really struggling on 4th downs.
Has anyone ever asked him about why he's so scared to go for it? Having Jared Goff isn't an excuse anymore pic.twitter.com/2PsuXN6QY2
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 4, 2021
This season alone, the Rams have either attempted a field goal or punted five times when facing fourth down and five or fewer yards to go between the 50 and the opponent’s 25-yard line.
Two of those plays came on Sunday against the Cardinals. First, the Rams punted on fourth-and-3 from the Cardinals’ 49-yard line while trailing 21-10. Then later on, they attempted a 46-yard field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-4 down 27-13.
Those two decisions were uninspiring and showed a lack of confidence in not only his offense to convert, but his defense to get a stop. That’s not to say going for it on either play would’ve changed the outcome, but the Rams didn’t score any points on either drive anyway; Matt Gay missed his 46-yard field goal attempt.
McVay has to change his approach on fourth downs. Gone are the days where he can’t trust Jared Goff to make a smart play in a key spot. He has Matthew Stafford, a good offensive line and plenty of reliable receivers on the outside.
Playing it safe was the wrong call on Sunday and the numbers suggest those decisions are costing the team.
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