Five years after he retires from the NFL, longtime Chargers and current Colts quarterback Philip Rivers will present a fascinating case for the Hall of Fame. Rivers has made eight Pro Bowls, he’s been the Player of the Week 10 times, the Player of the Month four times, and he currently ranks 13th all-time in Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric — tied with Dan Marino, and above Aaron Rodgers, John Elway, and Steve Young,
Rivers ranks seventh all-time in pass attempts (7,591), sixth in pass completions (4,908), sixth in passing yards (59,271), sixth in passing touchdowns (397), 10th in passer rating (95,1), and seventh in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (6.92). Impressive numbers even in a modern era that holds all possible benefits for quarterbacks.
On the other hand, Rivers’ postseason history has been… troublesome. He’s completed just 59.4% of his passes for 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. For his career, he ranks 29th all-time in interceptions (198), and he’s thrown more than 20 interceptions in a season just three times (2011, 2016, and 2019), but if he’s ever to get farther than a conference championship (which his Chargers did just once, in the 2007 playoffs, losing to the Patriots), the interception issue will have to change.
The Colts signed Rivers to a one-year, $25 million, fully-guaranteed contract in March after the Chargers decided to move on at the quarterback position. He’ll be starting for a new team for the first time in his NFL career, though he will benefit from a history with head coach Frank Reich, who was Rivers’ quarterback coach in 2013 and his offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015.
Nick Sirianni, Reich’s offensive coordinator, moved up from offensive quality control to quarterback coach when Reich was promoted in San Diego. Reich and Sirianni know all about Rivers’ occasional YOLO tendencies with the football and will endeavor to keep them contained while extracting the best Rivers has to offer.
One thing they’ll will have to address — and it’s something I’m sure they’re already aware of — is Rivers’ game-killing interception problem. Per Sports Info Solutions, Rivers threw six interceptions in the last two minutes of games, to just one touchdown pass, in 2019. That six-pick total is by far the most any quarterback has thrown in the last five seasons.
Part of this was opportunity — no other quarterback had as many attempts in the last two minutes of games as Rivers’ 56 — but Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton finished second with 53 two-minute attempts last season, he threw three touchdowns to one interception, he played on the worst team in the NFL, and Dalton is now Dak Prescott’s backup in Dallas. Jameis Winston led the league in interceptions with 30, he became the first player in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season, but even Winston threw just three two-minute interceptions. Winston is also now a backup, for Sean Payton in New Orleans.
Going back to 2015, there is no quarterback who has thrown this many late-game picks. Blake Bortles threw four in the 2016 season, and Ryan Fitzpatrick matched Bortles’ total in 2015. That’s the list.
So, why would an all-time NFL quarterback like Rivers, who is widely renowned as one of the smartest quarterbacks around at any given time — he vulnerable to this rogue factor? And how can Reich fix it?
One thing Reich can do, and it’s something he does very well, is to give his quarterback favorable reads in obvious passing situations… such as when your team’s losing in the last two minutes and your quarterback is passing on just about every play. Because here’s the thing — if you give Philip Rivers the opportunity to throw the ball and the route concept isn’t favorable, he’s going to throw the ball anyway. And while there’s a chance the ball will arrive in time and with the right speed, there are equal or greater odds that it will not.
Here, in Week 17, the Chargers were down 31-21 to the Chiefs with just over a minute left in the game. Rivers had fourth-and-17 at his own 32-yard line, and this was a desperate heave in the general direction of receiver Keenan Allen, picked off by Daniel Sorensen. There’s no challenge to the deep middle of the field, which allows Kansas City’s defenders to clamp down near the numbers. Rivers is throwing into converging triple coverage, and he doesn’t stand a chance.
Then again, challenging the middle of the field doesn’t always work out — especially against Vikings safety Anthony Harris, the NFL’s most underrated player at his position. Last season, Harris was the only player in the league to pick off seven passes and allow no touchdowns, and he does a brilliant job of moving off his receiver to jump the post to Mike Williams. The Chargers were down 39-10 with 1:59 left in the game, so all this did was pad Harris’ interception total for the season.
Were we to look at the one touchdown Rivers threw in the last two minutes of games last season, we would see a much more favorable concept, in which tight end Hunter Henry bodies defensive back Kameron Kelly in the end zone on a simple slant against the Steelers. Here, offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt does a nice job of forcing the one-on-one matchup with a crosser to the left, and a clearout combo to the right.
At this point in his career, Rivers has to realize that he does not possess the physical tools to play outside of structure. And as the late, great Ralph Wiley once wrote, “A man’s got to understand his own limitations. If he doesn’t, than his coaches should.”
Rivers’ velocity is not what it once was, which is to be expected at age 38. But if the Colts want to get the best out of the bargain with their new quarterback, their offensive coaching staff will have to work overtime to give Rivers the concepts that allow him to take advantage of defined reads and timing throws.
If Reich and Sirianni are able to accomplish this in situations where Rivers is more likely to make high-risk throws without the necessary rocket sauce, the Colts have a chance to give Rivers a commendable final act.
If not? Well, Rivers’ legacy becomes that much more complex.