The Duke Blue Devils keep finding ways to win under first-year head coach Manny Diaz.
Every week, it seems like the Blue Devils have finally dug too deep of a hole. First, it was a road game against Northwestern in Week 2 that demanded a last-minute field goal to force overtime. Then, it was a blown 17-0 lead against the Connecticut Huskies. Even the North Carolina Tar Heels scoring the first 20 points of the game wasn’t enough to keep Duke out of the winner’s circle.
Last Friday night, Diaz and his players beat the Florida State Seminoles for the first time in school history thanks to a pick-six from defensive back Chandler Rivers and two turnovers from linebacker Ozzie Nicholas.
Now, as one of five ACC teams with six victories already this season, the time has come for the Blue Devils to establish themselves against the top of the conference. The SMU Mustangs, ranked No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, come to Durham as the first of two consecutive ranked matchups. A victory (or a win over the Miami Hurricanes next week), and all of a sudden, a trip to the conference championship game is in play.
Will the Blue Devils pull it off again? Here are our staff’s predictions for the Week 9 clash.
Ryan Haley, Duke Wire site editor
The Mustangs offer a worthy challenge for Chandler Rivers and the Duke secondary. The Blue Devils are one of four defenses allowing fewer than five yards per pass attempt, but SMU has thrown for 11 yards an attempt in conference play so far.
While SMU’s offensive possessions will be more entertaining schematically, I think Duke will lose this game on the other side of the ball. The Blue Devils have averaged 19.3 points per game over their last three contests, including last week’s pick-six from Rivers to boost the numbers. Maalik Murphy is completing 50.6% of his passes and averaging 5.4 yards per attempt since Week 5, and Duke has only moved the ball more than 50 yards on a touchdown drive four times in that span.
On top of those struggles, the Mustangs have given up 2.64 yards per carry on the ground, the third-best mark in the FBS. Star Thomas won’t be able to save the day like he did against UNC.
SMU 28, Duke 10
Bryant Crews, Staff Writer
If you take into consideration that Duke received two votes in the last AP Poll, all signs point to a potential Duke win over a top-25 SMU squad in its first year in the ACC paving the way for Duke to push through into rankings themselves.
However, we don’t deal in hypotheticals here. SMU and its 11th-ranked offense will take on the Blue Devils and their borderline elite unit. Those are the best units from each team. The only thing here is that Duke’s offense is not remotely close to matching punches with SMU’s good (albeit not great) defense, meaning that if you’re keeping track at home, the Mustangs have more reliable units to believe in than the Blue Devils.
With that said, Duke should have enough in the tank to keep the game closer than people would imagine, but SMU’s depth and playmakers on offense (despite not having future NFL tight end RJ Maryland) win out.
SMU 27, Duke 17
Josiah Caswell, Staff Writer
For me, I think Duke’s special season takes a hit against the Mustangs. SMU has one of the top offenses not only in the ACC, but across the entire country with an average of 439.9 yards per game. Additionally, Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a monster in his own right.
Duke’s defense, specifically its secondary, has been its specialty, but they haven’t seen an offense like SMU’s, nor have they seen one even close. Jennings can not only throw the ball over the top of the defense, but he can also take it himself and be a big-time threat on the ground.
If Duke is to take this game, it would take more than just a strong outing from its defense. Quarterback Maalik Murphy and the team’s offense would need to find a groove and put up points, a lot of them. If the Blue Devils can find 30+ points, there’s a good chance it’s a tight game…or one they’ve won.
SMU 31, Duke 18