For the second time in three weeks, the Duke Blue Devils take their show on the road this weekend.
There are glass-half-full and glass-half-empty approaches to the last eight quarters of Duke football. On one hand, quarterback [autotag]Maalik Murphy[/autotag] has led five scoring drives from the fourth quarter onward with two go-ahead touchdown passes, and that doesn’t even count the missed chip-shot field goal in Week 2. On the other hand, Duke spent three quarters with little offense against Northwestern and blew a 17-point lead to Connecticut.
There’s one last test before the North Carolina Tar Heels come to town, and it’s another must-win game if the Blue Devils want to reach the postseason. According to ESPN FPI, this is one of two remaining games that Duke is favored in from here on out.
Here’s whether our staff thinks Manny Diaz gets his fourth straight win to start the season on Saturday.
Ryan Haley, Duke Wire site editor
On paper, this is a phenomenal matchup for the Blue Devils.
Duke’s offense, under first-year coordinator Jonathan Brewer, loves to throw the ball. If you don’t count kneel-downs, 58.9% of the team’s offensive plays have been dropbacks. And, coincidentally, Middle Tennessee has been the worst pass defense in the FBS through three weeks. The Blue Raiders have surrendered more than 10 yards per attempt in 2024, and Western Kentucky threw six touchdowns against them last week.
On the other hand, Middle Tennessee lives through the air on offense. MTSU averages 2.5 yards per carry and 68.0 yards per game on the ground, and junior quarterback Nicholas Vattiato threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns against the Hilltoppers in Week 3. However, Duke has yet to allow more than 4.6 yards per attempt as a pass defense and has more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. So it’s hard to see the Blue Raiders moving the ball at will.
And yet…something feels a little off with the Blue Devils. Murphy has only started five collegiate games, so perhaps this gets ironed out with time, but the offense has punted on four straight drives in each of the past two games. Duke only scored three points in the first four drives against Elon in Week 1. Until that gets fixed, I’m kind of going to assume this offense underwhelms for a stretch and keeps this game closer than it should be.
Duke 31, Middle Tennessee 20
Bryant Crews, Staff Writer
Duke is one win away from completing a clean 4-0 sweep of its non-conference slate. It hasn’t been the prettiest brand of football, but they’ve primarily been sound on defense, and offensively, Maalik Murphy and these receivers have made plays.
On Saturday, Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils visit Murfreesboro and Middle Tennessee State. MTSU beat the doors off Miami a couple of years ago in Miami, so there’s absolute precedence for them not being scared of Power Four competition. Plus, there’s the added factor that Manny Diaz spent four years as a defensive coordinator for MTSU. This is a homecoming of sorts for him.
And because of that, I believe Duke gets it done. Duke’s best defensive position group is the secondary, and they will have their hands full against Auburn Tigers transfer Omari Kelly and this MTSU passing attack. Like Duke, the air is where this team generates its offense.
Murphy throws for more than 25 yards and three touchdowns, Eli Pancol adds to his ACC-leading TD reception total with another, and running back Star Thomas finally touches paydirt. Defensively, I’m predicting two picks by this secondary. Duke pulls away in the second half to win by three scores.
Duke 34, Middle Tennessee 17