Staff predictions for Week 11 matchup between Duke and NC State

Duke is gearing up to take on NC State on Saturday, check out our Duke Wire staff predictions for the game.

The Duke Blue Devils need to right the ship a little bit in Week 11 of the college football season.

Manny Diaz won his first five games as the school’s head coach, the first time that Duke started 5-0 in three decades, thanks to a 20-point comeback against the North Carolina Tar Heels to open ACC play.

However, despite reaching the precipice of an upset against ranked teams in each of the past two weeks, the Blue Devils have now lost three of their last four. Diaz nearly enacted some revenge on his former program in Miami last Saturday, building an 11-point lead over the undefeated Hurricanes before five late Miami touchdowns put the game away.

Now, Duke travels to Raleigh for a rivalry battle with the NC State Wolfpack in desperate need of a get-right win. The Wolfpack have won their past two games to reach 5-4 on the season, but both victories came against California and Stanford, teams with a combined 1-9 record against ACC opponents.

Here are our staff’s predictions for Saturday’s in-state battle.

Ryan Haley, Duke Wire site editor

NC State true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey deserves his flowers for his work replacing former Coastal Carolina star Grayson McCall. With the Wolfpack’s preseason starter forced to medically retire after a head injury, Bailey has thrown for 1,141 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions across his last four games.

However, while the Duke pass defense got boatraced by Miami quarterback Cam Ward, he’s a leading Heisman Trophy candidate. The Blue Devils entered Week 9 within the top five in the FBS in yards allowed per pass attempt, and they’ll continue that form. On top of that, a Duke offense that’s finally put together back-to-back games over 390 total yards will feast on an NC State defense that ranks 13th among ACC teams in yards allowed.

Duke 30, NC State 20

Bryant Crews, Staff Writer

Saturday’s game in Raleigh is a gut-check moment for Duke. This season can slide off the rails if Manny Diaz doesn’t have his team ready to compete. Duke let ranked wins over SMU and Miami slip away over the past two weeks and now heads to Raleigh after two straight losses to take on a local rival in a hotly contested game. CJ Bailey replaced Grayson McCall after he medically retired and has done a really good job. He looks like the guy for the future.

I still believe though that Duke is the best college football team in the state of North Carolina this season, and they get back in the win column with a win on Saturday. Maalik Murphy builds on his recent performance and tosses two touchdowns while the ground game also adds a score, too. Duke gets a strip sack and an interception on defense.

Duke 27, NC State 16

Josiah Caswell, Staff Writer

Duke has had a tough schedule over the last few weeks, but it finally gets a little bit easier this week. NC State has struggled from the get-go, and with a backup quarterback, the Blue Devils should be able to get a win here as long as they can hold onto the ball and do what they’ve done all season long.

The most interesting storyline I will be watching, however, is the return of running back Jordan Waters. He spent five years with the Blue Devil for five years and had a career year in 2023 before he transferred to an in-state, conference rival. How will he do, and how will the Duke defense handle his return?

Duke 34, NC State 13