Florida football hits the road this weekend to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs for its first game of the 2024 campaign away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
After starting 1-2, Billy Napier and Co. are desperate for a victory — especially one against a Southeastern Conference opponent — as the schedule only gets more difficult after this weekend.
The good news is that the Gators should have the upper hand against the ‘Dogs as many metrics have the Starkville squad at the bottom of their SEC standings. The bad news is that the Orange and Blue have not been much better.
Below is a look at the Gators Wire staff’s predictions for the upcoming game with an explanation of why we believe in the outcome we project.
Adam Dubbin
Florida has looked rough against both FBS opponents it has faced so far — but to be fair, both Miami and TAMU are in the US LBM Coaches Poll top 25 after Week 3. The good news is that the next opponent might be the weakest team in the SEC this fall, and despite playing on the road for the first time this season, should provide the program a chance to find its bearings… we hope, at least.
As of Wednesday, BetMGM has the Gators favored by six points while the SP+ predictions foresee a 64% chance of victory by a margin of 5.5 points with a final score of 32-26, in favor of the visitors. These projections seem pretty realistic, but really, the Orange and Blue need to outperform the expectations if it wants to earn any respect.
I expect a lower-scoring game that will be pretty ugly to watch with UF’s special teams being the difference maker.
Florida 24, Miss. St. 20
David Rosenberg
Florida has a chance to pull itself out of the SEC cellar this weekend with a win over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have lost back-to-back games at Arizona State and vs. Toledo, compared to the Gators’ two losses against ranked opponents. UF will be favored coming into the road matchup, but it’s far from a guarantee that the Orange and Blue leave the ‘Sip with a win.
The game plan should be pretty straightforward.
Both Florida and MSU have struggled to move the ball on the ground, ranking 14th and 16th in the conference in rushing yards per game, respectively. That means the team that passes better should be at an advantage. PFF gave the Bulldogs a 39.4 team grade in coverage last week against Toledo, and they’ve yet to cross the 60.0 threshold in the pass rush this year.
Assuming Billy Napier is splitting dropbacks between Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway again, this might be a more Lagway-heavy game. He’ll have time to make his reads and scrambling should be easier than it was against Texas A&M or Miami. Mertz is a great game manager to start the first few drives, but it’s Lagway who will take that big shot down the field and give the team some momentum.
Florida’s secondary needs to step up too, even with all the injuries at the level. This is a game you’d like to have Asa Turner back for, but it doesn’t appear like he’ll be ready. Getting Devin Moore or Ja’Keem Jackson back this week would also be huge. The secondary performed at a replacement level last week — 62.4 in coverage, per PFF — and Mississippi State averages just one yard less through the air per game than Florida.
I think this game has the potential to get out of hand early, in the best of ways. A few deep balls to Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, if Eugene Wilson III is inactive for a second straight week, should do the trick. With that being said, this Florida team hasn’t made it easy to bet on them, so I’m predicting a one-score game.
Florida 33, Miss. St. 27
Aidan Gallardo
Disappointing would be an understatement when it comes to Florida’s start to the season. You know it’s bad when the Gators go 1-2 at home, a place where winning is highly expected. And now they have to play their first road game of the season as they travel up to face Mississippi State.
Now, the Bulldogs have been struggling as well which is why this “should” be a winnable game for Florida. But these days, the word winnable can be tossed out the window for this football team.
Mississippi State runs a high-tempo offense under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, and that could be problematic for the Gators’ defense. The Bulldogs like to air it out, so Florida’s secondary needs to be locked in from the opening snap. Offensively for the Gators, both quarterbacks will still be rotating in different possessions.
We saw how that looked last week but now doing it on the road can be a bit more difficult. Communication has to be important because those cowbells don’t stop ringing up in Starkville.
With all the talk about Billy Napier this week and distractions, on top of how they’ve played in their first three games of the year, I just find it hard to see the Gators winning this one despite Mississippi State having their fair share of struggles as well.
Miss. St. 27, Florida 21
Up next for the Gators
Florida will play their first road game of the season as they travel up to Starkville to play against Mississippi State on Saturday, Sept. 21. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
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