St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (7-8) and Washington Nationals (5-8) open up a three-game series at 7:05 p.m. ET Monday at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jack Flaherty is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 2-0 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 in 15 1/3 IP over 3 starts. Since getting roughed up by the Reds on Opening Day, Flaherty has yielded just one run over 11 IP.

RHP Joe Ross is the projected starter for the Nationals. Ross is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 11 IP over 2 turns in the Washington rotation. The aggregate St. Louis line against him includes a .626 OPS and .111 isolated power.

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Cardinals at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+125) |  Nationals +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The Redbirds and Nats faced each other last week, with Washington claiming two wins in a three-game set. Both Monday starters — Flaherty and Ross — pitched in that series.

Flaherty pitched 5 shutout frames on Tuesday; Ross tossed 6 scoreless innings on Wednesday.

The series loss for the Cards is part of a string of three series setbacks in a row; St. Louis enters Monday’s contest having won just two of its last eight games.

Flaherty didn’t pitch all that different in 2020 (4.19 ERA) than he did in 2018 (3.34) or 2019 (2.75). He was undone by a low strand rate and a higher percentage of fly balls leaving the yard.

Peg the Redbirds having enough edge on the mound to warrant a slim road favorites’ price. BACK THE CARDINALS (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS, but for the sake of a rider on the above ML play, consider a Cardinals play if the tag approaches +160.

Over/Under (O/U)

Surface run production numbers for the Washington offense (3.8 runs per game) don’t match with the higher proficiency that shows in advanced metrics.

St. Louis (4.9) does have some solid scoring numbers, but even its offense is perhaps underperforming given how hard the Cards have been hitting baseballs this April.

With both hurlers being seen for a second time in six days, and with both bullpens filing average but ball-in-play deflated numbers, BACK THE OVER 8 (-110).

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