The St. Louis Cardinals (51-46) head north of the border Tuesday to start an interleague back-to-back with the Toronto Blue Jays (53-43) at the Rogers Centre with the 1st pitch set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis will be without 2 All-Stars for this series — 3B Nolan Arenado and 1B Paul Goldschmidt — who are both not vaccinated for COVID and unable to travel to Canada.
The Cardinals lost 2 of 3 at the Cincinnati Reds this past weekend but are 6-4 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games starting before last week’s All-Star break.
The Blue Jays have won 6 straight, which includes a 3-game sweep at the Boston Red Sox, and Toronto is 8-2 SU over the last 10 games.
Season series: Tied 1-1, but the Blue Jays have a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
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Cardinals at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Andre Pallante vs. RHP Jose Berrios
Pallante is 3-4 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 70 IP over 8 starts and 18 relief appearances in his rookie season.
- Last start: Win, 7-3, July 15 at home vs. the Reds with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.70 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3 HR and 7.0 K/9 in 3 starts and 8 bullpen outings.
Berrios is 7-4 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 101 2/3 IP across 19 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Toronto’s 4-2 home win vs. the Kansas City Royals with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1 start — a 7-3 loss in St. Louis May 23 — with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
Cardinals at Blue Jays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Blue Jays -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-112) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Cardinals at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Cardinals 3
Money line
PASS.
The Blue Jays (-230) are the right side because the Cardinals (+180) are down their 2 best players, and Toronto has a much better winning percentage in interleague play than St. Louis. However, we’re not laying -230 on them.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108) for a half-unit because Berrios is a much better pitcher at home, and Toronto’s lineup has been raking lately.
Berrios is 5-0 at home with a 3.33 ERA (7.15 road ERA), 1.17 WHIP (1.55 road WHIP) and 10.9 K/9 (6.4 K/9 on the road) in 9 starts.
Finally, the Blue Jays have the highest hard-hit rate in the majors and the 2nd-highest wOBA over the last 30 days according to FanGraphs.
Hit the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108) for a half-unit because they are 16-29 RL as home favorites, and save a little in the budget for the Under.
Over/Under
Take the UNDER 8.5 (+110).
Berrios should have a quality start at home vs. St. Louis’ lineup sans Arenado and Goldschmidt, and Pallante is a groundball-pitcher while Toronto’s lineup hits an above-average rate of groundballs.
Also, more than 80% of the money is on the Over according to Pregame.com because most of the O/U situational trends point to a higher-scoring game. Let’s fade the market and trends.
BET a half-unit on the UNDER 8.5 (+110) since there’s some value in Toronto’s ML too.
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