The St. Louis Cardinals (20-17) close out their 4-game series with the New York Mets (25-14) at Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. took a 2-1 series lead with a Wednesday’s 11-4 win over St. Louis but Mets SP Max Scherzer exited the game in the 6th inning with discomfort in his left side.
These teams split Tuesday’s series-opening doubleheader with the Mets winning the first game 3-1 and the Cardinals winning the second 4-3.
Cardinals at Mets projected starters
RHP Dakota Hudson vs. RHP Chris Bassitt
Hudson is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: Win, 4-0, at home vs. the San Francisco Giants Saturday with 5-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
Bassitt is 4-2 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 42 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 5-4, at home vs. the Seattle Mariners Saturday with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: Win, 3-0, April 26 in St. Louis with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
Cardinals at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Mets -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)
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Cardinals at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Cardinals 3
Money line
BET the METS (-180) because they have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup and N.Y.’s lineup hits righty pitching better than St. Louis’s.
Hudson grades in the 15th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, K%, expected ERA, chase and whiff rates and his exit velocity has increased by 10 mph year over year (according to Statcast). He also has a 4.04 ERA on the road (2.34 home ERA) and 1.50 WHIP (1.17 home WHIP) for his career.
Bassitt has 3 pitches in his arsenal with a negative run value, grades in the 98th percentile in exit velocity and 80th percentile in hard-hit rate.
The Mets rank in the top-10, and ahead of the Cardinals, in key advanced hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate, according to FanGraphs.
Since N.Y.’s ML is pricey, I’d only RISK 1-1.25 UNITS on the METS (-180).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Mets’ RL would need to be north of +150, the Cardinals are 9-5 RL as road underdogs and the Mets are 9-10 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (+112) because these teams have a combined 8-6 O/U record when these starters take the mound and both lineups are productive against right-handed pitching. It’s only a LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (+112) because N.Y.’s ML is my favorite wager in this game.
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