St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (20-16) continue their 4-game series with the New York Mets (24-14) at Citi Field Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split Tuesday’s series-opening doubleheader with N.Y. taking the first game 3-1 then St. Louis winning the second affair 4-3.

The Cardinals have won 3 of their last 4 games but are just 4-6 overall in the last 10 games while the Mets have alternated between winning and losing over the past 8 games and are 5-5 overall in the last 10.

Cardinals at Mets projected starters

RHP Jordan Hicks vs. RHP Max Scherzer  

Hicks is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP over 5 starts and 2 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Loss, 8-2, vs. the San Francisco Giants Friday with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: Loss, 3-0, April 26 with 2 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 1 K.

Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 across 44 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 2-1, vs. the Seattle Mariners Friday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Cardinals: No-decision in 5-2 loss April 25 with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 1.63 FIP with a .179/.216/.264 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line with 34.0 K% and 84.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 194 plate appearances (PA).

Cardinals at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Mets -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Cardinals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Cardinals 1

Money line

BET the METS (-210) because they have an edge in the pitching matchup and perform better against righty starters.

Scherzer hasn’t allowed an ER over 21 IP with a 32/2 K/BB rate in 3 starts vs. the Cardinals since the beginning of last season. N.Y.’s bullpen has much stronger pitching peripherals than St. Louis’s, including a better xFIP and K/BB, outside-the-zone swing and swinging-strike rates, per FanGraphs.

The Mets are 20-7 overall vs. righty starters and rank 6th in wRC+ (117) and 7th in wOBA (.327) against right-handed pitching. Whereas the Cardinals are 16-13 against right-handed starters and rank 14th in wRC+ (104) and 16th in wOBA (.304) vs. righty pitching.

However, since this is a pricey ML, I’d only RISK 1 unit on the METS (-210) instead of betting to win 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the METS -1.5 (+110) only because the Cardinals have been a lot more productive at the plate over the past two weeks. However, N.Y. is just 8-10 RL as a home favorite while St. Louis is 9-4 RL as a road underdog.

But, the Cardinals cannot hit Scherzer and all 4 of the Mets victories with Scherzer on the mount have been by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+105) since the total has been lowered from a 7-run opener due to sharp line movement and St. Louis’s lineup figures to struggle against Scherzer.

But, the Over has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Cardinals-Mets meetings in N.Y. and the Mets are 4-3 O/U in Scherzer’s 7 starts this season.

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