The St. Louis Cardinals (19-15) head to Citi Field Monday to start a 4-game series with the New York Mets (23-13) with the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis is just 5-5 overall in the last 10 games, but won the rubber match of a 3-game set with the San Francisco Giants 15-6 on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
New York is also 5-5 in the last 10 games, but lost the rubber match of a 3-game interleague series against the Seattle Mariners 8-7 Sunday.
The Mets won 2 of a 3-game set with the Cardinals April 25-27 with New York outscoring St. Louis 13-12 in the series.
Cardinals at Mets projected starters
RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Trevor Williams
Mikolas is 3-1 with a 1.49 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 42 1/3 IP in 7 starts.
- Won his last 10-1 vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: No decision in St. Louis’s 5-2 loss April 25 with 7 scoreless IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 2.33 FIP with a .184/.238/.286 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 19.6 K% and 84.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 92 plate appearances (PA).
Williams is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 2 BB and 9 K in 1 start and 4 relief appearances.
- Lost his last start 5-2 at the Arizona Diamondbacks with 2 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 0 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 3.78 FIP with a .285/.326/.456 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 18.9 K% and 89.9 mph EV in 122 PA.
Cardinals at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:09 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+160) | Mets +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: -+100)
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Cardinals at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Mets 3
Money line
GIMME the CARDINALS (+100) because they have the hotter bats and Mikolas is a top-of-the-rotation starter whereas Williams isn’t even in New York’s rotation, but takes the hill Monday because Mets SP Jacob deGrom is still on the IL.
Over the last 2 weeks, the St. Louis lineup is 3rd in both WAR (3.3) and wRC+ (126), 4th in wOBA (.344) and 5th in BB/K rate (0.51), per FanGraphs. New York’s lineup ranks 15th in WAR (1.6), 17th in wRC+ (98) and 19th in wOBA (.299).
Mikolas is FanGraphs’ No. 26 power-ranked starter, Williams is the No. 289 power-ranked relief pitcher and Cardinals batters are familiar with Williams, who pitched in the NL Central for the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2016-20.
Williams is 4-6 all-time vs. St. Louis with a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 14 career starts and 5 relief appearances.
BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (+100).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the CARDINALS -1.5 (+160), if at all, because St. Louis is 11-5 RL on the road (3-2 RL as road favorites) and the Mets +1.5 (-200) are 7-10 RL at home (0-1 RL as home underdogs).
All 3 of the previous Cardinals-Mets games were decided by at least 3 runs and St. Louis has won all 3 of Mikolas’ road starts this season by at least 2 runs.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-125) only because St. Louis’s ML is my favorite wager in this game and more cash is on the Under while more bets are Over (according to Pregame.com), which suggests the Under is taking professional money.
But the weather forecast is predicting nearly 12 mph winds blowing out to right-center field, St. Louis is 4-2 O/U in Mikolas’ 6 starts this season and the Over has cashed in 5 of the past 7 Cardinals Mets meetings in New York.
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