The St. Louis Cardinals (73-69) travel to Citi Field to start a three-game set with the New York Mets (72-72). First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Adam Wainwright is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA (184 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 across 28 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 8 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K Wednesday vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .186 batting average (BA), .228 wOBA, .345 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.5 K% and 84.5 mph exit velocity (EV) in 122 PA.
LHP Rich Hill is New York’s projected starter. Hill is 6-6 with a 3.82 ERA (139 IP, 59 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 27 starts and one relief appearance for the Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Last outing: No-decision in New York’s 2-1 loss at the Miami Marlins Wednesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
- Wainwright beat New York, 6-5, May 3 with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 5.95 FIP with a .279 BA, .352 wOBA, .445 xSLG, 17.1 K% and 89.1 mph EV in 70 PA.
Cardinals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U:-108)
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Prediction
Mets 6, Cardinals 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the METS (-108) for a half unit because they are 12 games above-.500 when facing righty starters and 15 games above-.500 at home.
Also, New York’s emotional three-game series victory over the New York Yankees this weekend could give the Mets a jolt down the stretch.
In fact, the Mets have scored at least 7 runs in six of their past 10 games so they come into Monday’s game on a bit of a hot streak.
Furthermore, roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Cardinals (according to Pregame.com), and oddsmakers have reacted by moving St. Louis from a +110 underdog up to the current price.
I’m okay with fading a one-sided market in this spot because the Cardinals have one of baseball’s biggest fanbases and their ace on the mound, but Wainwright is a little less effective on the road.
However, it’s only a “LEAN” to the METS (-108) since Wainwright has been phenomenal in the second half of the season, and the Cardinals are 20-13 vs. lefty starters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though I’d love some insurance on our New York money line wager because the Mets +1.5 (-180) is a little out of my price range, and the Cardinals are 15-6 overall as a home favorite and 12-9 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because both lineups are facing their preferred pitcher handedness, Hill’s pitching peripherals are subpar vs. the Cardinals and St. Louis’ bullpen ranks in the bottom-5 of several advanced pitching categories. So the “backdoor is wide open” for the Over to cash.
For instance, the Cardinals hitters rank in the top-5 against left-handed pitching wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate. While New York’s lineup struggles against lefties but ranks around league average in advanced hitting stats vs. right-handed pitching.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
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