The Milwaukee Brewers (91-60) host the St. Louis Cardinals (81-69) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis has won 10 straight games and 12 of its last 13, including the first two games of this series by a combined score of 7-3.
The Cardinals have taken a 4-game lead for the second NL Wild Card berth while the Brewers have already clinched a playoff berth and their magic number to win the NL Central is at 3.
Season series: Tied 7-7.
RHP Miles Mikolas is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA (32 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through seven starts.
- Last outing: Win, 8-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K Friday against the San Diego Padres.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster (46 PA): 5.38 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .357 wOBA, .566 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 86.1 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Brett Anderson makes his 22nd start for the Brewers. He is 4-8 with a 4.18 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-2 victory at the San Francisco Giants Sept. 1 with 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- Anderson beat St. Louis, 9-3, April 11 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (93 PA): 6.73 FIP with a .313 BA, .375 wOBA, .636 xSLG, 6.5 K% and 92.2 mph EV.
Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-180) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Cardinals 4, Brewers 3
Money line (ML)
It’s square but I have to ride with the hot hand and “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+110) because they hit lefties better than the Brewers hit righties and St. Louis’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.
The Cardinals are 21-13 vs. left-handed pitching with the fifth-best wRC+, sixth-best wOBA and fourth-highest hard-contact rate against lefties.
On the other hand, Milwaukee is 14th in hard-contact rate, 17th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Furthermore, St. Louis’s bullpen has the third-best WAR in September and ranks higher than Milwaukee’s bullpen in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%. Cardinals relievers have an ERA more than 2 runs lower than the Brew Crew’s this month.
That said, the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Milwaukee while the public is betting St. Louis and I try not to follow the crowd when betting sports.
Also see: Understanding sharp money vs. public money
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though I’d love some insurance for St. Louis’s money line because the Cardinals +1.5 (-180) are a little too expensive. St. Louis has been a good run line bet on the road but not good enough to lay -180 in this spot.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 8.5 (+110) for 1 unit because this is a “pros vs. joes” situation as more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under whereas the public is split on the total, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Oddsmakers have reacted by dragging the Cardinals-Brewers total down from the 9-run opener.
And while Anderson won’t be starting any playoff games, the Brewers are 5-13 O/U in his starts despite his mediocrity.
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