The St. Louis Cardinals (80-69) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-59) play the second game of a four-game series Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cardinals RHP Jake Woodford (2-3, 4.30 ERA) makes his sixth start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 3 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings with 4 walks and 8 strikeouts through two starts and one relief appearance since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis in September.
- Held Milwaukee scoreless over 7 innings across two relief appearances, the most recent of which was 5 1/3 innings Sept. 4.
Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-9, 2.55 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 169 1/3 IP.
- Has a 4.34 ERA through 29 innings across his last five starts and allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a start at St. Louis to start that span.
- Does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and ranks in the 92nd percentile in HardHit rate and 94th percentile in average exit velocity.
Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Cardinals 4
Money line (ML)
The analysis on Tuesday’s game can pull in a number of directions.
Woodruff should provide Milwaukee a starting pitching advantage over Woodford, but he is having one of his worst stretches of the season over his last five outings. His worst start of the year was Aug. 19 against the Cardinals.
These relief corps are both top-10 units considering SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% in September.
St. Louis has been hitting the ball significantly better in September than Milwaukee. The Cardinals are top-10 in wRC+, OPS and wOBA over the last three weeks, while the Brewers are 18th or worse in those categories over that span.
Ultimately, Milwaukee is simply too expensive in this spot. St. Louis has won nine straight games and if anything warrants a play as a value-based bet on the Cardinals (+190) but this is a PASS for me.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
St. Louis has just been running too hot lately to believe with much confidence that they’re going to get blown out Tuesday. The Cardinals have won three of their last five meetings with the Brewers outright, all as underdogs, and covered the spread in one of their two losses.
The relief corps for the Cardinals has been excellent in September and should be able to help keep things within reach should Woodford not extend beyond the fifth inning.
St. Louis has been more productive as a road underdog against the spread than Milwaukee has as a home favorite, although I don’t put too much stock into those numbers.
A small play on the CARDINALS +1.5 (-117) is my “lean” here.
Over/Under (O/U)
This total feels a run too low for me. Woodruff hasn’t been as sharp over his last few starts and Woodford is unlikely to escape unscathed as he did in relief against the Brewers at the start of the month.
American Family Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, trailing only Coors Field in Denver in run production.
I like the OVER 7.5 (-115).
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