The St. Louis Cardinals (79-69) travel to American Family Field to start a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (91-58). First pitch will be at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee won two of three games in a weekend series against the Chicago Cubs and clinched a playoff berth for a fourth straight season Saturday. The Brewers’ magic number to win the NL Central is three.
St. Louis has won eight straight games and 10 of their last 11, including a vital three-game sweep over the San Diego Padres. The Cardinals now hold a 3-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.
Season series: Brewers 7-5.
RHP Jake Woodford is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 over five starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K in St. Louis’s 7-6 victory at the New York Mets Tuesday.
- Woodford is 0-0 with a 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K across 7 IP covering two relief appearances against Milwaukee this season.
RHP Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Brewers. He is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA (133 IP, 38 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 25 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 loss at the Detroit Tigers Tuesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
- Peralta is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 3 BB and 14 K in three starts against St. Louis this season.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (109 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .253 BA, .362 wOBA, .483 xSLG, 25.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity.
Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Brewers 4, Cardinals 1
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because the Cardinals are white-hot right now and Peralta has a history of tailing off in the second half of the season.
He has a career 4.70 second-half ERA (3.34 first-half ERA), 1.28 WHIP (1.07 first-half WHIP) and 2.6 K/BB (3.3 first-half K/BB). Also, Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers vs. active St. Louis hitters are paltry by his standards.
However, the Brewers will have the momentum of looking to clinch the division at home. Plus, Peralta has always performed better at home with a 73.7% home winning rate and 2.92 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in 22 home starts and 27 relief appearances.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-103) because 11 of the 12 Cardinals-Brewers meetings this season were decided by at least 2 runs and there’s “sharp line movement” toward Milwaukee.
Close to 80% of the money wagered is on the Brewers and the oddsmakers have adjusted Milwaukee’s run line from a plus-money payout to the listed price, according to Pregame.com. At this point, the sportsbooks are trying to entice bettors into backing a hot Cardinals team.
Moreover, the Brewers have owned the NL Central this season with the third-best cover rate against divisional opponents at 43-26 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) because there should be a playoff-like atmosphere in this Cardinals-Brewers series and both teams have played more to the Under in divisional games.
Also, there’s a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market as more cash is wagered on the Under whereas the Over has received more bets. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
However, Woodford being a fringe rotation guy, Peralta’s aforementioned second-half struggles and these teams playing more to the Over in their location-based trends are the reasons for my “LEAN” on the UNDER 8.5 (-125).
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