The Milwaukee Brewers (19-16) host the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals (21-14) Tuesday to begin a three-game set at 7:40 p.m. ET in American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis swept the Colorado Rockies this past weekend following a four-game split with the New York Mets. The Cardinals haven’t lost a series since dropping two of three vs. the Washington Nationals April 19-21.
Milwaukee beat the Miami Marlins in back-to-back games to win a three-game set this past weekend. The wins snapped a six-game losing skid, which included a four-game sweep at the Philadelphia Phillies
Season series: Brewers lead 2-1.
LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is on the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 4 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP of a 7-inning game with 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K vs. the Mets Wednesday.
- Career vs. the Brewers: 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 across 2 starts.
- Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .172/.250/.241 slash line, 7/3 K/BB rate, 0 HR and 1 RBI.
RHP Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA (32 IP, 12 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 14.9 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 4 IP with 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Phillies.
- Career vs. the Cardinals: 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.48 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 3 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 62 at-bats with a .274/.357/.581 slash line, 17/6 K/BB rate, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.
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Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Brewers 3, Cardinals 2
Money line (ML)
There are a couple of reasons why I’m BETTING BREWERS (-125) for 1 unit. First, Milwaukee’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching compared to righties while St. Louis struggles vs. right-handed pitching.
The Brewers are 27th in both wRC+ and OPS and 25th in wOBA against all pitching. However, vs. lefties, Milwaukee is fifth in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Conversely, the Cardinals hitters against right-handed pitching rank in the bottom-10 lineups of wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.
Second, Peralta is much more effective at home and has filthy stuff. For his career, Peralta has a 3.12 home-ERA (5.87 ERA on the road), 1.06 home-WHIP (1.46 WHIP on the road) and is 12-3 at home (7-6 in road games).
Statcast grades Peralta in the 97th percentile of K%, 92nd percentile of whiff%, 95th percentile of expected wOBA and 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Since the start of the 2020 season, Milwaukee has the worst run line record in division games (20-35 RL) and an 11-22 RL record as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (+100) for a half unit because, while I have more faith in Milwaukee’s lineup in this spot than St. Louis’ and Peralta has elite advanced pitching grades, Kim also has fantastic numbers vs. the Brewers.
I’d assume that whenever Kim turns this game over to the bullpen, St. Louis will be using right-handed relievers, which Milwaukee could have a tough time hitting.
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