The St. Louis Cardinals (69-64) face the Milwaukee Brewers (82-54) for the second game of their three-game series Saturday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cardinals LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.23 ERA) makes his 21st start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 97 2/3 IP.
- Has a 3.55 ERA over six second-half appearances; has not pitched beyond the fourth inning in any of his last four outings.
- Has benefitted from a .256 BABIP and has a 4.26 xERA and 4.58 xFIP.
Brewers RHP Adrian Houser (7-6, 3.69 ERA) makes his 22nd start in his 24th game. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 112 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 2.96 ERA over 54 2/3 IP across 10 starts and two relief appearances at home.
- His 60.2% GB% ranks second amongst all pitchers with at least 110 IP.
Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Milwaukee 5, St. Louis 3
Money line (ML)
St. Louis absolutely trashed Milwaukee in a 15-4 win in the series opener Friday, but I am not anticipating a repeat performance Saturday.
Kim’s recent appearances lend some support to the idea that he may get an early hook. He was pulled in his last outing after just 4 innings despite that he gave up just 1 earned run on 3 hits and tossed only 64 pitches. He has dealt with a balky back all season, too. Two starts back he also lasted just 4 innings and gave up only 2 earned runs.
A quick trip to the bullpen will expose a weakness for the Cardinals. St. Louis’ relievers rank in the bottom 10 in ERA, SIERA and K-BB% over the last two weeks.
Houser likely won’t go deep into the game for the Brewers either, but Milwaukee’s bullpen (despite Friday’s atrocious showing) are among the league’s best over the last two weeks and throughout the second half of the season.
BET MILWAUKEE (-130).
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I rarely like to rely on trends when deciding which side of things to come down on, but these two teams have split 10 meetings in the season series, and every game has been won by 2 or more runs.
The Brewers have bullied the NL Central on the run line en route to a 40-24 ATS record, and I like them to get it done today in a matchup that they have a small edge in starting pitching and a big edge on the back end.
Consider a partial-unit play with nice value on the BREWERS -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under (O/U)
This starting pitching matchup swings both squads around to the worst side of their platoon splits. The Brewers are a bottom-10 team on the season against lefties when considering wRC+, wOBA and OPS. The exact same can be said for the Cardinals against right-handed pitching.
Both these starters also shut down the opposition in their one start against them earlier in the season. Kim allowed 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings when he visited Milwaukee in May, while Houser held the Cards scoreless through 5 innings during an April matchup in St. Louis.
However, these two starters have played mostly to the Over on the year, and Am-Fam Field is one of the most hitter-friendly in all of baseball.
Heading into this one with a cautious “lean” to the UNDER 8.5 (-112).
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @unansweredpoint on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]