The St. Louis Cardinals (68-64) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (82-53) Friday to begin a three-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-4.
RHP Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Cardinals Wainwright is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA (169 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 26 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 13-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday.
- Wainwright is 0-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 10 K in two starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster (128 PA): 3.27 FIP with a .243 batting average (BA), .300 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.2 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Peralta is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA (121 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 22 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB and 2 K in Milwaukee’s 6-4 victory at the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Peralta has two no-decisions against St. Louis this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (97 PA): 4.99 FIP with a .244 BA, .347 wOBA, .497 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 87.7 mph EV.
Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Brewers -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Cardinals 1
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-180) only because it’s on the fringe of my buy-price but Milwaukee has an edge in the three most important facets of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).
While Wainwright turned 40 earlier this week and is having a throwback season, he has been aided by tremendous defensive play. Wainwright has a mediocre K%, EV, hard-hit rate and xSLG.
However, Peralta has some of the best stuff in the league. Peralta grades in the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, xSLG, K%, expected wOBA and whiff rate. He was dominant in his first start against St. Louis season and exited his second start with an injury that placed him on the IL. Presumably, Peralta has recovered and should be dialed in for fall baseball.
In addition, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 in several advanced pitching categories whereas St. Louis’s ranks near the bottom. For instance, the Cardinals relievers have the second-worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.
Since Milwaukee’s money line is so expensive, I’d entertain throwing the Brewers (-180) into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite to get a plus-money payout.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+122) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 40-23 ATS, St. Louis is 25-31 ATS vs. NL Central opponents and all nine Cardinals-Brewers meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-122) because both the “pros” and “joes” are headed in that direction and oddsmakers have brought this total down from the flat-8 opener according to Pregame.com.
On the other hand, we are getting the worst of the number at this point and if Wainwright doesn’t pitch into the 7th inning, Milwaukee’s lineup could rake St. Louis’s weak bullpen.
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