The St. Louis Cardinals (5-5) and Chicago Cubs (14-7) split a doubleheader Monday and will square off again on Tuesday evening. First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. We analyze the Cubs-Cardinals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Cardinals at Cubs: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Ponce de Leon has made one start so far in 2020. He lasted 3 2/3 innings against the Twins, while allowing three earned runs and three walks, to go along with his eight strikeouts.
- Ponce de Leon showcased his swing-and-miss stuff during his time with the Cardinals in 2019. In 13 appearances (eight starts), he recorded a 3.70 ERA and 9.6 K/9. He does have a tendency to be wild, though, as shown by his 4.8 BB/9.
- He has a much lower ERA on the road than he does at home to this point in his young career. However, the 1.9 K/BB doesn’t support the low mark, and he has a .227 BABIP to thank for his success away from home.
Darvish has been dominant in his first four starts of 2020. He’ll carry a 1.88 ERA into this contest, with 27 strikeouts and just four walks in 24 innings (10.1 K/9).
- He was one of the best pitchers in the league during the second half of last season. Over his last 13 starts, he put up a 2.76 ERA with 118/7 K/BB across 81 2/3 innings. The success, and improved control, has carried over into this year.
- Darvish does have some pretty drastic splits since joining the Cubs prior to the 2018 season. Since then, he owns a 3.30 ERA on the road, but a 4.60 mark at home.
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Cardinals at Cubs: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Cardinals
- SS Paul DeJong (illness) out
- C Yadier Molina (illness) out
- SP Carlos Martinez (illness) out
Cubs
- OF Steven Souza (hamstring) questionable
- SP Tyler Chatwood (back) out
Cardinals at Cubs: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 6, Cardinals 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Cardinals (+165)
- Cubs (-189)
The Cubs are sporting the second-best record in the National League and have their ace on the hill today. Darvish is on an outstanding 17-start run dating back to last year, in which he has racked up a ton of strikeouts and improved his walk rate. They should come out on top in this one, but we’ll PASS on laying nearly 2:1 odds.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Cardinals would return a profit of $16.50. A winning $18.90 bet on the Cubs would return a profit of $10.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Cardinals +1.5 (-139)
- Cubs -1.5 (+115)
Ponce de Leon has the potential to match strikeouts with Darvish for awhile against a Cubs’ offense with the highest K% in the league. However, they also walk a lot (fifth highest BB%), and the right-hander usually gets himself in some trouble by dishing out too many free passes.
Side with the CUBS, as they should eventually get to Ponce de Leon and the St. Louis pen, and win by more than a single run.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 8 (-106)
- Under 8 (-115)
The Chicago offense could have a pretty good day against a starter who typically has some control issues. Meanwhile, Darvish, through all his dominance, hasn’t been quite the shutdown force at Wrigley as he has been everywhere else. Look for the Cardinals to score a few runs in this game as well, and help push the total OVER.
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