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The SMU Mustangs and the Nevada Wolf Pack open the 2024 NCAA football season at Mackay Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the SMU vs. Nevada odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
SMU begins a new era of football in Reno Saturday. It’s the 1st official game as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), although this, of course, is a non-conference game. Still, it’s rather historic.
The Mustangs posted an 11-3 record, including an AAC Championship, before falling to Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. QB Preston Stone, who completed 59.9% of his passes for 3,197 yards, 28 TD and 6 INT is back under center. Stone before suffered what turned out to be a season-ending ankle injury in the regular-season finale against Navy.
For Nevada, it turns to coach Jeff Choate, who was the head honcho at recent FCS power Montana State. He has his work cut out, but the Wolf Pack’s cupboard isn’t completely bare. RB Sean Dollars returns, and Boston College transfer RB Pat Garwo gives the team depth. The defense was a disaster in 2023, and needs to improve dramatically. Facing the high-flying SMU offense in Week 0 is a tall order.
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SMU at Nevada odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) | Nevada +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU -27.5 (-115) | Nevada +27.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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SMU at Nevada picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 38, Nevada 17
Moneyline
SMU (-5000) is unlikely to suffer a setback against Nevada (+1600), a team which needs a lot of work. The Wolf Pack is in tremendous disarray, winning just 4 total games last year. Colin Kaepernick isn’t coming through that door. Romeo Doubs isn’t coming through that door. Nate Burleson isn’t coming through that door.
However, you cannot lay 50 times your potential return, as that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward, whether it’s the season opener, or otherwise. You would have to risk $100 for a mere $2 reward.
AVOID.
Against the spread
It takes a little bit of a leap of faith, but NEVADA +27.5 (-105) is the play.
SMU -27.5 (-115) has a high-flying offense that averaged 38.7 points per game last season. However, the defense was not very good, and Nevada has enough depth at the skill positions, as well as under center, to at least get into the teens. It’s hard to see the Mustangs getting into the 40’s right off the bat.
Over/Under
The lean is to UNDER 55.5 (-110), but go with a half-unit play at the most.
Playing an Under in an SMU game early on in 2023 made sense. The total went low in 5 of the 1st 6 regular-season games before the offense kicked into high gear late in the season. They hit 5 Over results in the final 6 contests with a healthy Stone under center. While the offense managed just 20.0 PPG in the AAC title game, and the bowl, that was without Stone.
For Nevada, the Under cashed in 4 of the 1st 5 games last season. It did see USC drop 66 points on them in Los Angeles on Sept. 2, 2023 in the opener. However, Nevada held the opposition to 33 or fewer points in 4 of the 1st 5 home games, even with an awful defense. SMU will score, but it isn’t likely to get into the 40’s.
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