Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks

While there are many definitions of “sleeper”, what this analysis considers is that a sleeper is someone drafted as a backup that becomes a fantasy start. The first 12 quarterbacks taken are already starters, so the green shaded players are picks that offer the best value in that spot and could be considered earlier. Those in red are being drafted too high for their expected outlook.

Below is ordered in their average draft position from recent drafts of the last few weeks. This won’t be exactly like your draft, but it tends to be generally close enough to rely on.

This year, the Top-8 picks are almost always what you see below in ADP, and the position becomes more volatile when you pick your backup. It’s usually fine to wait on a quarterback in most fantasy leagues, but don’t wait on a backup quarterback.

Average Draft order – Value Picks

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
1	BUF	Josh Allen	No.1 for last two years, with a better schedule. Why not? But this will cost you a lot. Like a full round earlier or even two than all the others.
2	LAC	Justin Herbert	30+ TDs in both seasons, enters his third year with the same offensive weapons as 2021 when he was No. 3.
3	KC	Patrick Mahomes	Taking Mahomes as the third QB seems like a huge value. Sure, Tyreek Hill left but there are plenty of new receivers and no longer a certainty which one a defense needs to focus on.
4	CIN	Joe Burrow	Almost two years from the knee injury with a stocked set of wideouts. Available later than the Top-3 but this isn’t settling, it is more like stealing. Rock solid.
5	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Was No. 1 in 2019 and BAL wants to revert to that run-happy offense. But no better than No. 10 the last two years, has a much worse passing schedule when he does pass and never replaced Marquise Brown at all. Fingers crossed on his health if he runs even more.
6	ARI	Kyler Murray	Good spot for one of the best QBs since his rookie season. ARZ struggled with injuries last year but is healthy. No DeAndre Hopkins for six games hurts, but adding Marquise Brown softens that blow while helping the offense the entire season.
7	PHI	Jalen Hurts	The No. 10 QB from 2021 upgrades with A.J. Brown and the No.1 passing schedule strength. The table is set for a fantasy football feast.
8	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Finished 2021 with this No. 8 ranking and yet Davante Adams took his 123 catches to Vegas this year. Rodgers is a HOF’er and will compensate for the loss, but his schedule strength drops from No. 3 to only No. 18 this year.
9	LAR	Matthew Stafford	This is probably a steal and reflects his lack of rushing stats, but the move to LA already made Stafford the No. 5 QB last year. Tougher schedule and the Rams have a target on them as the reigning champs.
10	DAL	Dak Prescott	Hasn’t been worse than No. 6 when healthy and his ankle is on the second season since the injury. Loss of Amari Cooper not ideal, and Michael Gallup not yet back to form, but Prescott looks to run more and spread out the passing more.
11	DEN	Russell Wilson	In his glory days in Seattle, Wilson was a near-lock for a Top-5 ranking but moved to Denver. There are weapons already there and a new offense installed centered around him. If Wilson did better than this, would anyone be surprised?
12	TB	Tom Brady	The age-less wonder was the No. 2 QB last year. That meant each league had 11 guys saying “not taking the chance on a 44-year-old QB” and one guy just smiling. No Gronk, Chris Godwin still recovering from his torn ACL, and one year older. But he’s like tossing a coin and flipping heads every time.

Sleepers and Overvalued Players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
13	LVR	Derek Carr	Carr spent his career bouncing between the No. 12 and No. 18 fantasy QB, and now he has Devante Adams. Doesn’t run much, and the schedule takes a downturn, but worth being the first back-up taken from his upside.
14	SF	Trey Lance	He had just one year as a starter in college (though glorious for sure). 49ers let him simmer on the bench last year. Good O-line, great schedule, inventive offense and a dual threat. Makes a great backup that may end up as your starter. If any QB is positioned to be a surprise fantasy star, it is Lance.
15	MIN	Kirk Cousins	He hasn’t performed this low in years and was No. 9 last season. New offense intends to pass more, run less. He’s likely to end up eventually starting in many fantasy leagues… just like every year…
16	CLE	Deshaun Watson	Ethics and distractions aside – Watson was always Top-5 in HOU on a far worse team. Great O-line and all-new run support mean he doesn’t have to do it all. Misses the first six games, plays Ravens, Bengals and then takes a bye. In most leagues, only four or five more games until fantasy playoffs. He’ll no doubt be rising in ADP but hasn’t played since 2020 and CLE is all new.
17	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	Was only No. 26 last year while missing five games. Upgrade to Tyreek Hill is a difference-maker, but mediocre backfield offers little support. Makes for a solid “average” fantasy backup and carries all-new upside.
18	CHI	Justin Fields	Rookie year ended as the No. 31 QB while playing in just 12 games and produced rock-bottom passing stats. HC Matt Nagy is gone and sputtering offense gets a make-over but lost Allen Robinson with no replacement. Better fantasy backup options at this point.
19	HOU	Davis Mills	The 3.08 pick in 2021 that featured five first-rounders and landed in HOU where the Deshaun Watson dilemma was only starting. Bad season for the Texans again, but Mills tossed four 300-yard games and threw eight TDs over final four weeks. Will need to throw just as much for 2022.
20	IND	Matt Ryan	Colts buy a new aging QB every year and Ryan gets his turn. Super solid at this spot and far better schedule than he had in ATL. Plus – great O-line and run support but will not be asked to throw nearly as many passes and does not rush the ball himself.
21	ATL	Marcus Mariota	Bad O-line, very young receivers and Desmond Ridder standing on the sideline waiting for HC Arthur Smith to say, “That’s enough, send in the rookie.”
22	WAS	Carson Wentz	Wentz was only No. 14 at IND last year, and nothing suggests he’s fantasy starter worthy anymore. Gets a great schedule and decent receivers. But he’s likely just a bye week replacement.
23	JAC	Trevor Lawrence	Lawrence was the No. 22 QB in 2021 as a rookie, playing in a highly dysfunctional offense that lost most players to injury. He was also the 1.01 pick last year as the best college player. Worth granting him a mulligan on last year’s team-wide debacle. He’s another QB that could really surprise this year.
24	DET	Jared Goff	This is the least he should do – he was the No. 24 last year. But the Lions brought in Jameson Williams and DJ Chark. O-line is one of the best. Schedule is much better. Could be a streaming choice.

Best of the Rest

Mac Jones (NE) – It is a surprise to see Jones not make the Top-24 when his rookie season was better than the four quarterbacks that were selected before him. And Jones was the No. 18 fantasy quarterback. He may not be a fantasy starter quite yet, but he’s also likely to be better than the No. 18 he was last year as a rookie.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Losing A.J. Brown meant the fantasy world writing off Tannehill who was No. 13 and No. 9 over the two previous seasons. He’s not likely to improve of course, but dropping out of even backup consideration is too harsh.