SJSU Basketball’s Success May Hinge On Guard Alvaro Cardenas

SJSU men’s basketball’s success may hinge on guard Alvaro Cardenas continuing his massive third-year leap.

SJSU men’s basketball’s success may hinge on guard Alvaro Cardenas

Alvaro Cardenas must continue his third-year leap

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A deep-dive into SJSU’s third-year guard

WHO: Boise State (9-4) vs. San Jose State (7-7)

WHEN: Friday, January 5th — 9:30 p.m. CST / 7:30 p.m. PST

WHERE: Provident Credit Union Event Center; San Jose, Calif.

TV: Fox Sports 1

STREAM: FuboTV — get a free trial

ODDS: San Jose State +6

San Jose State junior point guard Alvaro Cardenas might wonder if he could’ve done more to prevent Wyoming’s Akuel Kot from drilling a jump shot over him as time expired last Tuesday night. Despite going step-for-step with Kot and coming within a hair of blocking the shot, Cardenas was forced to watch Kot’s teammates hound him at mid-court.  

And Cardenas might also wonder if he could’ve done more to prevent SJSU from conceding a 17-point lead. Similar to that cruel final possession, this too may be unreasonable. Cardenas led SJSU with 21 points, and nine rebounds and shot a ridiculous 4-for-5 clip from three. 

Buried in the debris of Tuesday’s soul-crushing defeat is the reality that Cardenas may have to play unreasonably well in order for SJSU to have a shot at maintaining its relevance in the Mountain West.

Now at 7-7 overall and 0-1 in conference play, the Spartans must win nine of their 17 conference games to become eligible for its second-straight CBI tournament appearance. If they can do it, it would be their first time making back-to-back postseason appearances. 

The vaunted Mountain West may play spoiler to this feel-good story. Twelve of those 17 conference games come against teams with a higher NET ranking than SJSU (No. 165 in NET). One of those 12 is Friday night’s opponent: Boise State.

The Broncos’ scoring core of Chibuzo Agbo (15.3 points), Tyson Degenhart (14.8 points), Max Rice (11.7 points) and O’mar Stanley (11.5 points) could be the latest squad to obliterate SJSU’s shaky defense. 

If that happened and SJSU were to fall to San Diego State (No. 21 in NET) this Tuesday, it would start out conference play a meager 0-3. Considering SJSU still has to face New Mexico (No. 36 in NET), UNLV (No. 115 in NET) and Utah State (No. 26 in NET) this month, the Spartans could rack up six losses before February begins. Even scarier, SJSU would have just three losses to spare for a slate that’ll feature another bout with both SDSU and Utah State, plus a trip up to Colorado State (No. 15 in NET). 

In order to survive this gauntlet, the Spartans defense must improve, but what if it remains hapless? Does that mean it’s back to being a conference punchline?

No, it does not. It’ll just require players like Cardenas playing exceptionally well on offense. 

Just take SJSU’s upset over crosstown rival Santa Clara from a couple of weeks ago. Sure, the Spartans allowed 78 points, but Cardenas contributed a whopping 37 points when combining his 14 points and 10 assists. 

But then there’s the example from last Tuesday. When adding Cardenas’ 21 points – two of which came on a layup to tie the game at 73 before Kot’s game-winner – and four assists he contributed 33 total points. 

If 37 contributed points was enough and 33 wasn’t, does that mean Cardenas must average the former moving forward? Possibly. Particularly because SJSU’s defense has allowed at least 75 points in each of its last seven games. 

Yes, it’s a daunting challenge for Cardenas. And a slightly unfair one, too. It’s not his fault SJSU’s rim protection is lacking. 

But if nothing else, it’s a compliment. 

Entering the 2023-24 season, there was a cloud of doubt hovering over Cardenas. 

‘Was he only good last year because of Omari Moore?’

By playing next to Moore, the 2022-23 Mountain West Player of the Year, Cardenas wasn’t burdened by the pressure to shepherd the team to victory. Plus, more attention on Moore, just equated to better opportunities for Cardenas. Perhaps the best example came in SJSU’s win over Southern Indiana in the CBI – the program’s first ever postseason win – when Moore scored just 15 points on nine total shots. Cardenas, meanwhile, went for a team-high 22 points on an 8-for-13 clip from the field and 3-for-6 clip from three. 

Through 14 games this year, Cardenas has quelled questions about his dependence on Moore. He’s gone from averaging 10 points, 3.4 assists, two turnovers on 41.3% mark on two-pointers and 31.3% from three in 2022-23, to averaging 13.9 points, 5.6 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 48.6% mark on two-pointers and 39.2% mark from three in 2023-24. He’s dished the fifth-most assists per game in the Mountain West and is tied with MJ Amey for the team-lead in points per game. 

But something SJSU fans should be cognizant of – even if they’d rather not – is that Cardenas taking that next step forward may not bode well for the team’s long-term success. For the better Cardenas does, the better the chance Power Five programs are going to offer what SJSU can’t: NIL opportunities and increased exposure.  

Of course, the retainment conundrum is still some time away – but – not too far away and not too unlikely to ignore it. 

For now at least, Cardenas is focused on leading SJSU: the only Division I school to offer him. 

Considering his success, it’s mind-boggling to think that Cardenas, an undersized guard from Spain, couldn’t even get on a Zoom call with the head coach of a Division I program back in 2021 – much less a scholarship. 

Cardenas was lucky SJSU eventually did come around and in a similar state of desperation. When Cardenas couldn’t get a visa appointment to head to San Jose, SJSU head coach Tim Miles was sending direct messages to members of the Spanish Embassy via social media, and trading emails with congressmen.

Since then, Cardenas has flown his way into becoming a cornerstone of rebuilding one of the worst programs in college basketball. But can he rise to the next challenge: leading the Spartans to the CBI?

“There’s nothing I don’t think that kid can’t handle,” Cardenas’ former trainer Gilbert Abraham told The Spear last January. 

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