Six points with David Dorey – 2023 surprises

And so 2023 ends.

The magic players for the year end up to be Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Sam LaPorta. If you owned more than one of them, you probably made the league playoffs, two or three and you won it.

The reality in the summer is that most fantasy team owners draft as if the previous season will repeat. It’s certainly the best measuring stick for players but your fantasy team will score the most if you can draft players that have the greatest  difference between what you paid for them, and what they actually did. It’s like getting extra earlier picks.

Here’s a look at my top six surprises from the 2023 season and a quick take on why it happened and what they might teach us.

1. TE Sam LaPorta (DET) ADP=TE18, Actual = TE2
   

   

   I’ve ranked every single NFL player for the last 27 years. What Sam LaPorta has done is without precedent. I’ve long said that rookie tight ends are never worth drafting as a fantasy starter, if even as depth. Kyle Pitts changed that entering the NFL with massive expectations as the 1.04 pick. But he ended with 177 fantasy points while LaPorta already totaled 221. The Lions parted ways with T.J. Hockenson last year and now have a better version.
   Why? – Great question, no good answer other than his talent matched perfectly with the scheme and quarterback. The lack of a No. 2 receiver in a pass-first offense was an opening, but Jahmyr Gibbs was expected to limit the tight end. LaPorta wasn’t even the first tight end drafted. Dalton Kincaid with 136 fantasy points was taken first and he followed the normal rookie script.

2. WR Puka Nacua (LAR) ADP = WR90,  Actual=WR5
   

   

   Puka Nacua has been a rookie for the ages. He’s setting all-time NFL records and yet was the 5.42 pick as the 20th wideout selected. He hit a lull at midseason but heated back up for the last month and totaled seven 100-yard performances and has a record 101 catches entering Week 18. He was undrafted in nearly every league but 10 catches for 119 yards in Week 1 took care of his availability. This is why you spend big with free-agent dollars at the start of the season.
   Why? – Every NFL team missed on him five times in the NFL draft. He went to Washington for two years as a non-starter. Then to BYU for two years where he peaked at 48 catches for 625 yards and five scores. So yeah, go for the unproven ones with minimal experience. Maybe just pick the marginal guys out of BYU because they apparently do not know what they have.
   

3. RB Kyren Williams (LAR) ADP = RB71, Actual=RB6
   

   

   The Rams’ running back started the year as the No.2 back behind Cam Akers. Zach Evans was assumed to be the No. 2 since he was just drafted and Williams had 35 rushes for 139 yards over ten games as a rookie third-stringer. Williams missed four games but already gained 1,144 rush yards and scored 15 times. He is the No. 5 running back despite the missing games. His pace would have resulted in 323 carries for 1,620 yards and 21 touchdowns over a full 17-game season. He moved up the depth chart over the summer but was still the No. 2 back behind the worst O-line. And often undrafted.
   Why? – He was noted as looking better in the summer. But the Rams backfield had been a mess for years and the O-line was terrible. But the passing success made the rushing easier, the offensive line has vastly improved over expectations, and Williams emerged once given the chance. He entered the NFL with two years at Notre Dame as the starter with around 200 carries. The former fifth-rounder needed a full year to get a chance.

4. WR Mike Evans (TB)  ADP=WR33, Actual = WR7

   

   Mike Evans fell in drafts and was taken around the fifth round in most leagues, despite stringing out nine straight 1,000-yard seasons, second only to Jerry Rice. But losing Tom Brady scared drafters away. Evans currently has 76 catches for 1,233 yards for his best season in five years. His 13 touchdowns are one short of a personal best.
   Why? – Drafters underrated Baker Mayfield based on his time with Cleveland, Carolina, and the Rams the last two seasons. He played as well as he had earlier in his career and Evans’ talent alone has been a guarantee of 1,000 yards regardless of the litany of quarterbacks over the previous nine years.

5. QB Brock Purdy (SF),  ADP = QB20, Actual = QB5
   

   

   The 49ers quarterback impressed in the final nine games last season as the fourth quarterback. But he injured his elbow and his status to start the season wasn’t clear until right before Week 1. Sam Darnold had minor hype (really) in the summer. The bigger concern was what his arm was like and how durable he would be. He’s remained healthy all season and currently totals 4,280 yards and 33 touchdowns.
   Why? – While he had health concerns and tougher schedule this year, Purdy plays behind an elite O-line in an offense stocked with top-level weapons. He’s in arguably the most advantageous offense to succeed of any NFL quarterback.

6. RB Rachaad White (TB) ADP = RB25, Actual = RB5
   

   

   This surprise followed Mike Evans. Everyone downgraded the Tampa Bay offense with Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette gone, and a new offense installed. The Buccaneers had one of the worst offensive lines in 2022 and it looked no better. White only had 3.7 yards per carry and 129 runs and 50 catches behind Fournette. But he’s been given a much higher volume – 253 rushes and 60 receptions. He ranks No. 4 in RB catches and No. 2 in touches (319).
   Why? – It’s all volume. They dumped Fournette but the new offense did not use the rookie Sean Tucker, Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Chase Edmonds as much as expected. White was good through Week 12 and then has been turned into a 20-carry rusher with up to six catches weekly. He still only has a 3.6 yard-per-carry average. The Bucs O-line has also shown improvement but more than anything, White has no challengers in the backfield. There was speculation that they would add someone significant but never did.