Fantasy football season is in the air and the unique offseason is causing more questions than answers as we enter our fantasy football drafts. Today we focus on Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and his potential to be the No. 1 overall selection this year.
Christian McCaffrey’s Fantasy Football ADP
Average Draft Position on MyFantasyLeague: 1.20 (12 teams, PPR redrafts)
Min. Pick: 1
Max. Pick: 5
Reasons to draft McCaffrey No. 1 overall
- The third-year pro simply had a season for the ages in 2019: A league-leading 2,392 yards from scrimmage on 403 total touches, including only the third 1,000-1,000 rushing-receiving season in NFL history and tying for the league lead with 19 total touchdowns. It added up to 353.2 standard-scoring fantasy points and a full 70.6 points more than any other running back and 127.6 more than any other position player outside of quarterbacks.
- As you no doubt gleaned from the above, “Run CMC” also is a pass-catching monster. He led all backs in 2019 with 142 targets, 116 receptions and 1,005 receiving yards. His 116 catches were an NFL single-season running back record — eclipsing his own mark of 107 set in 2018. That gave him a whopping 469.2 fantasy points in point-per-reception formats — 150.4 more than second-place Aaron Jones.
- With the depth at wide receiver, selecting an elite running back remains the way to go at the top of the first round. And with McCaffrey clearly ranking at the top of the most important fantasy position, the choice is that clear and simple with the No. 1 overall pick.
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Reasons not to draft McCaffrey No. 1 overall
- The 400-touch curse is real. According to ProFootballReference.com, there have been 44 seasons in league history where a running back has amassed 400-plus touches in a season. Not including McCaffrey, 18 of those have transpired since 2000. On average, the last eight 400-touch backs prior to 2019, had an average of 108.6 fewer touches, 806.5 fewer total yards and 131.5 fewer fantasy points (141.3 PPR) in their ensuing season. The wear-and-tear of the 400-touch workload clearly seems to manifest itself in the raw statistical decreases.
- McCaffrey remains Carolina’s unquestioned top weapon, but the rest of the offense has undergone an extreme makeover. There’s a new head coach – a first-year NFL coach – in Matt Rhule. There’s also a first-year pro offensive coordinator in Joe Brady and there’s a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. That’s a lot of change.
- While McCaffrey still figures to see a boatload of touches, there’s an argument to be made Rhule and Co., might want to diversify the attack a little more after McCaffrey’s whopping 52.5% team touch share occurred in a 5-11 season – the franchise’s worst record in a decade.
- McCaffrey wasn’t the only player making history in 2019. New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas caught a record 149 passes, and with wideouts’ year-to-year fantasy consistency being more reliable than running backs’, there’s Thomas’ case for the No. 1-overall pick, particularly in PPR.
- Then there was second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson becoming the first NFL QB with a 3,000-yard passing season and 1,000-yard rushing season while shattering the quarterback single-season rushing record with 1,206 yards. That certainly makes Jackson worthy of the No. 1 pick – especially in two-quarterback leagues.
Where should I draft Christian McCaffrey in fantasy football drafts?
If you own the first-overall selection in a 2020 fantasy redraft league, going with McCaffrey is Plan A through Y.
Anyone else is Plan Z.
Just don’t expect another historical season — they’re called historical for a reason — but everything is in place for another No. 1 RB fantasy campaign, and you’re hopping right back on the Run CMC train with that No. 1 overall draft pick.
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