If you have followed this site or Twitter at all over the last few weeks, you know that there has been a lot of praise for rookie receiver Bryan Edwards. The steady drumbeat of hype started in the offseason when he was working out privately with teammates and has continued to practice at training camp.
Now that Tyrell Williams is injured and is expected to miss some time with a torn labrum, the expectation is that Edwards will “start” at the “X” receiver spot for the remainder of camp and potentially into the season.
One of the reasons why so many people are fans of Edwards is his analytical profile coming out of college. While he never posted a 1,000-yard season at the collegiate level, he was super productive at an early age in the SEC. As a 17-year old freshman at South Carolina, Edwards started and nearly totaled 600 yards. He would improve every season for the Gamecocks and ended his career as one of the most productive receivers in SEC history.
But despite the strong analytical profile and positive news coming out of Raiders’ camp, should we pump the brakes some on a potential breakout season for Edwards? In a recent article by Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus, he laid out the case why Edwards might not be as productive of a receiver this year as many are hoping. Take a look at why PFF isn’t as optimistic about Edwards putting up big numbers as a rookie:
“The X role that he’d be taking over from Tyrell Williams is simply not one that Derek Carr has thrown to over the course of his career. Last season, he targeted split wide receivers 160 times all season, 25th among all quarterbacks in the NFL. Heck, Williams himself saw only 4.3 targets per game when healthy last season.
While you could chalk up some of that as a byproduct of the talent around him, Carr targeted outside receivers only 204 times (14th) in his final year with Amari Cooper in his receiving corps. That’s far from a heavy share to go around for Edwards. With Darren Waller at tight end, Hunter Renfrow in the slot and first-rounder Henry Ruggs III all vying for significant target share, there simply may not be a ton left for Edwards in Las Vegas.”
Renner does make a strong point about the role in which Edwards will be stepping into as a Raider. Jon Gruden has traditionally built is offense inside out and that’s exactly how the Raiders plan on winning games this season.
The goal is to run the ball as much as possible and utilize Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow in the middle of the field in the passing game. To Gruden’s credit, he has built an offense around Derek Carr that best suits his playing style.
If Edwards does play a significant amount of snaps or even starts, it’s fair to be pessimistic about the type of numbers he would post in the offense. He’s not likely to be a high-volume receiver in this version of the Raiders’ offense.
However, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a significant asset to the offense. Edwards’ best trait is his ability to win with size and physicality. The Raiders have to be better on third down and in the red zone this season and that is where a possession receiver like Edwards could make a major impact.
Look for Edwards to be a big part of the Raiders’ offense this season in some form or fashion. However, his impact might not necessarily be reflected in a strong statistical season as the outside receivers in this offense don’t see a ton of opportunities. But make no mistake about it, the hype surrounding Edwards is real and he will be a major part of the team’s future on offense.
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