Having the No. 3 overall pick in the draft is a good problem to have.
However, it is nevertheless technically a problem, and for the Houston Texans, the conundrum is what they should exactly do with the third overall selection in the 2022 NFL draft.
The quarterback class isn’t as compelling as the 2020 class. Edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux could be gone by the time Houston picks. If that is the case, Houston will be deciding whether to address their offensive line as Alabama’s Evan Neal could be available, or the Texans could fix the backend with LSU cornerback Derek Stingley or Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton.
According to Sam Monson from Pro Football Focus, who wrote about why teams should go with a receiver or cornerback when also contemplating taking an offensive lineman or edge defender with the No. 1 overall pick, compared the situation to Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell from the 2021 draft.
PFF’s Zach Drapkin attacked this problem some months ago, concluding that receiver and cornerback remain undervalued at draft time and highlighting that the Cincinnati Bengals made the overwhelmingly correct decision to select Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell at No. 5 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Receivers generate more value, and do so on fewer snaps, so despite both positions being areas of need, it was a no-brainer from a data point of view.
That decision has been vindicated completely in just one season. Chase has been one of the most impactful players in the game, immediately transforming the Bengals’ offense into something far more devastating and potent than it was before his arrival. Even though Sewell also played well at tackle for the Detroit Lions in his rookie campaign, it’s clear just from a cursory glance that he hasn’t made the same kind of impact, and the advanced data backs up that eye test.
Chase generated 0.45 PFF WAR, a top-five figure among wide receivers, while Sewell was at 0.28, ranking seventh among tackles. Sewell’s figure is impressive in its own right, but Chase generated more WAR than every tackle in the NFL outside of Trent Williams, whose 96.6 PFF grade in 2021 was the highest ever given at any position.
Monson gave a compelling reason to go with a receiver over an offensive lineman. There weren’t any defensive back to offensive lineman comparisons, or receiver to edge defender comparisons.
The Texans will need to go with an impact player that can speed up the rebuild. Taking an offensive lineman that high in the draft certainly won’t do it, given the Texans’ perimeter players aren’t exactly elite. However, a perfectly picked defensive player could provide some playmaking to make Houston more competitive in 2022.