Former Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green appears destined to don a different jersey for the first time in his 10-year career. But could it be the Baltimore Ravens’ black and purple that’s on him next season? That’s what Pro Football Focus is predicting.
Before you completely dismiss the notion, let’s take a closer look at Green, who was once a star in this league. While Green might not be the top receiving threat he once was, he’s still a polished route runner with the type of experience to know how to win at the point of attack. At the worst, he’s an on-field coach for a wide receiver corps that could use the pointers from a legend.
While it’s fair to point to Green’s dwindling stats over the last two seasons, the Bengals haven’t done him any favors either. There’s been a revolving door of quarterbacks due to injuries and poor play, leaving Green with a lack of chemistry and more than a few inaccurate passes. The Bengals might just have the worst offensive line in the NFL, which severely limits the time Green has to get open. In the end, there’s a reason Cincinnati’s offense has finished in the bottom 10 spots each of the last four seasons and it’s fair to wonder how much of Green’s struggles are an extension of the Bengals’ woes.
Still, Green shouldn’t be considered a top wide receiver any longer. He’s had a pretty extensive injury history and he’s clearly lost a step, limiting his value. But in a more niche role that highlights his talents instead of relying on him to be everything at all times should improve his production. And with a reduction in role comes a slight reduction in playing time, hopefully allowing Green to stay healthy throughout the whole season.
Baltimore already has the capable speedster in Marquise Brown, with Devin Duvernay and James Proche also fitting into that role as they develop. Miles Boykin is a solid downfield blocker with a big body and enough speed to be a threat. The Ravens just don’t have the sure-handed guy who can be a security blanket for quarterback Lamar Jackson. And while guys like Allen Robinson should be at the top of Baltimore’s list this offseason, Green could very well be an intriguing option at a far better price point.
Really, it’s not just Green’s abilities on the field that dictate whether a deal happens, but the dollars and cents as well. PFF predicts Baltimore will sign Green on a two-year, $20 million contract with $10 million fully guaranteed at signing. It’s tough to know precisely how that contract is structured but if the guarantees are all in the signing bonus, it could really be a one-year deal that is backloaded to give a lower 2021 cap hit.
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume it is a true two-year deal at $10 million per year flat . . . That’s still not a terrible price for a second-tier wide receiver but it would be a pretty big gamble for Baltimore. The Ravens aren’t expected to have a ton of cap space this offseason and a $10 million cap hit would be a sizeable chunk of it. If Green can become a 1,000-yard receiver again, it would be worth it; but if he misses extensive time or can’t come close to his former production, Baltimore would have wasted quite a bit of cap space.
As with every deal this offseason, the final numbers will truly tell if a signing was wise or not. Until then, this is a deal that’s hard to love or hate.
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