After weeks of increased smoke around James Harden’s willingness to depart Brooklyn, a significant fire broke out on Friday evening.
According to Shams Charania, “There’s expectation that both the 76ers and Nets will engage in dialogue on a deal around Simmons for Harden, multiple sources say, with Philadelphia holding a chest of role players in Seth Curry, Tyrese Maxey, and Matisse Thybulle that could sweeten a potential package.”
Charania also added: “Still, there’s no urgency for Nets officials, who have had the steadfast belief that the current core, as is, has the means necessary for a championship. However, it’s believed that an opening exists should an offer elevate the team and make the roster more well-rounded as the franchise pursues a championship.”
This comes after Harden looked entirely disengaged in a 4-point, 6-turnover performance in a loss to the lowly Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. Harden missed Friday’s dismantling at the hands of the Jazz with a hamstring injury.
That is a far cry from Adrian Wojnarowski’s report from last week, which indicated that the Nets were confident in Harden’s future with the franchise and would not entertain trade discussions involving the star at the deadline.
The most recent report screams one thing — the Nets have either been informed or come to the realization that Harden likely isn’t re-signing with the franchise this summer.
Logically, it’s hard to imagine this leak came from Brooklyn, who loses significant leverage in this timeline of events. If they don’t trade Harden now, and he requests a sign-and-trade this summer, the Nets will likely get little more than enough return to make the money work.
Right now, all 3 sides — Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Harden — have incentive to get something done ahead of Thursday’s deadline.
Brooklyn can attempt to refresh its chemistry by acquiring Ben Simmons and some peripheral compensation. The Nets are 21st in defense, and they’ve fielded a top-10 offense despite a down season by Harden relative to his own standard. So acquiring Simmons, plus some supporting assets, would elevate Brooklyn’s defense while also promoting more ball movement within the players on the floor.
Schematically, Simmons profiles as an excellent fit, too. Brooklyn could throw out deadly small-ball lineups or run Simmons-Durant pick-and-rolls to pressure teams to communicate cleanly as they rotate through their coverages.
Even with his noted shortcomings, Simmons is a 25-year-old three-time All-Star with multiple years of team control. He was arguably the best defender in the league last season. At his best, Simmons crushes opposing defenses with mesmerizing speed, athleticism, and vision in transition, and then neutralizes the opposition’s best offensive player on the other end of the floor. That’s more akin to Brooklyn’s style of play, too, as the Nets are 10th in pace this season.
Speaking of roles and style of play, The Athletic‘s Alex Schiffer reported on Saturday that Harden has grown increasingly frustrated with his time in Brooklyn due to a role and style of play that differ from what he had envisioned. For what it’s worth, similar words have been floated to these ears, too.
Beyond that, Brooklyn’s leverages is as strong as it will ever be right now. If the Sixers refuse an acceptable package, Brooklyn can simply ride out the year and hope for a championship. Not only does that make Philadelphia an inferior competitor to Brooklyn in the short-term, but it also means they have to live with not making a move at the deadline to support Joel Embiid’s MVP candidacy and potentially waste a year of his prime. So, the Nets have more chess pieces now than they will in July.
Of course, Philadelphia has re-iterated a willingness to extend Simmons-gate beyond the deadline. As long as Embiid is on board with them waiting it out, there’s no shame in that strategy. And that lack of self-imposed pressure allows the Sixers to sit back and relax until the offseason if they don’t like the trade scenario right now. After all, the Sixers — with one max-level player holding out and another largely under-performing — are ahead of the Nets in the Eastern Conference standings.
There are two reasons Philadelphia is so uniquely positioned to acquire Harden regardless of what happens ahead of the deadline. First, only three teams have cap space — and none of them are close to being contenders. The second is that Philadelphia is the only other team with an openly disgruntled, max-salary player in the league.
So whether they do it now or in July, the Sixers have to be considered the favorites to get Harden unless something categorically shifts in Brooklyn. The real question is whether the Nets want to do a soft reset featuring a healthier, younger, hole-filling star with a few pieces accompanying him to Brooklyn, or go for a title as is and risk losing Harden for a floor-level price. I should add that the Nets are still championship contenders regardless of whether they do the trade.
As it pertains to Harden, specifically, it seems as though he’s done all but request a trade from Brooklyn at this point. But he has as much motivation as anyone to ask Brooklyn get the deal done now rather than later, if he is truly intent on leaving.
If the Sixers acquire him by the deadline, Harden is still eligible to sign a super-max extension worth approximately $270 million over five years with Philadelphia this summer. That is the same deal he could get by re-signing with Brooklyn, as the structure of free agency rules incentivizes players to stay with their current teams instead of leaving.
If he gets signed-and-traded to Philly this summer, he’s eligible for a four-year max deal worth approximately $200 million. So, there’s a $70 million incentive for Harden to ask Brooklyn to do the deal now.
He could go the opt-in-and-trade route, which would mean he opts into the last year of his current deal and then request a trade later on. But, that would maximize his entitlement by approximately $5 million. Perhaps it’s not worth it to him to keep this game going that long for the sake of $5 million.
Regardless, the smoke is rapidly turning into fire, and it’s looking increasingly likely that Harden’s time in Brooklyn is coming to an end.
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