With the 11th overall pick in 2020 NFL Draft, the New York Jets should select…
An offensive tackle. Not a wide receiver.
The Jets have serious needs at both positions, but the quality of the tackles in this class, the depth of the receivers and the history of past drafts should compel the Jets to grab the best offensive lineman when they’re on the clock.
There are five starting-caliber tackles who could be drafted in the top-20: Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs, Mehki Becton and Josh Jones. All would be massive improvements over the Jets’ presumed starters, George Fant and Chuma Edoga. There are obvious strengths and weaknesses to all five, but the potential of landing a top-class tackle to protect Sam Darnold and open up the offense is too good to pass up.
Jets GM Joe Douglas also hinted multiple times that he wants to load up on offensive linemen during his conference call last week. He told Darnold’s parents he would do everything in his power to surround the quarterback with the best protection and even mentioned that he believed there aren’t a lot of talented linemen in the NFL.
“We’re going to do our best to get as many quality ones as we can,” Douglas said, “because you can never have too many.”
Does that mean Douglas is absolutely using the 11th pick on a lineman? No. But the quality of tackles isn’t as great after those first five. The Jets would be better served to take the best possible offensive linemen at No. 11 to ensure the future of their franchise rather than gamble on a reciever in one of the deepest classes in the past few drafts. That, of course, is assuming one of those tackles is available.
There are 11 total receivers on Pro Football Focus’ big board. The Jets would likely have their pick of the top three – Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs III – with the 11th pick. That’s an enticing trio to choose from, but there will be plenty of other good receivers in the later rounds when the Jets have the 48th, 68th and 79 picks. The Jets can easily wait for a second-tier name at No. 48 – someone like Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr. or Donovan Peoples-Jones – or even look to the third round for players like K.J. Hill, Chase Claypool or Gabriel Davis after taking the best tackle at No. 11.
The Jets’ decision could hinge on the health of Quincy Enunwa as well. If the Jets believe Enunwa will be ready to go for the 2020 season after suffering another neck injury, it makes more sense to wait on a receiver and take a less polished one later in the draft. A quartet of Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Enunwa and a rookie receiver would be a solid group for Darnold alongside Le’Veon Bell, Chris Herndon and young offensive tackle.
Taking one of either Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs and praying for a good tackle to fall in the second round is setting the Jets up for failure if neither the receiver nor the tackle pans out. Without a good offensive line, it might not even matter if Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs are the next Jerry Rice. If the Jets can’t find a good, young offensive lineman later in the draft, their entire offense will suffer as much as it did in 2019 and the development of Darnold and whichever receiver they drafted would be hindered significantly.
History also favors taking an offensive tackle over a reciever this early in the first round.
Since 2010, 11 receivers and 17 tackles were taken in the top-11 of the draft. Of those players, only four of the 11 receivers have been Pro Bowlers, compared with 11 of the 17 tackles. Could Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs be the fifth in the past 10 years? Sure. But history is kinder to the linemen, and one team executed this strategy effectively to build a powerful offense.
The Cowboys drafted three offensive linemen with their first pick from 2011-2014 to build the best protection in football. That set the team up for success when it took Ezekiel Elliot fourth overall and Dak Prescott in the fourth round in 2016. The Cowboys finished in the top-six in both offensive points and yards in two of the past four seasons thanks to their incredible offensive line.
The Jets also used this model well back in 2006 when they used their two first-round picks on D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. New York built one of the best offensive lines in the league with those two young centerpieces and it allowed Thomas Jones and Shone Green to combine for five 1,000-yard seasons between 2007 and 2011.
Every year the Jets fail to build a quality offensive line wastes another year of Darnold’s growth and cheap rookie contract while shrinking the team’s window of opportunity to succeed. In a division now ripe for the taking without Tom Brady, the Jets need to make the prudent move and take the best offensive tackle instead of the best wide receiver.