Houston Texans: WR Will Fuller V
DeAndre Hopkins is unquestionably Deshaun Watson’s best receiver, and perhaps the league’s best receiver, but to say that Houston’s passing game struggles to create explosive plays without Will Fuller V in the lineup is a radical understatement. Fuller has played in just 11 games this season and has been sidelined since Week 16 with a groin injury. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien said on Thursday that Fuller will be a game-time decision for Saturday’s wild-card game against the Bills, which means the team is doing everything it possibly can to get Fuller suited up for this one.
It’s easy to understand why. Not only does Fuller tied for the team lead with nine catches on passes of 20 air yards or more (Kenny Stills has him matched), Fuller is also a massive instigator in Houston’s deep passing game with his mere presence. Fuller’s downfield speed requires at least the attention of one deep safety, and makes things a lot easier for Watson. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Texans have a QBR of 75.2 with Fuller, and 59.8 without him. The team’s overall yards per play drops from 6.08 to 5.29 without him, yards per attempt from 7.78 to 6.32, sacks per attempt go up from 7.8% to 10.7%, and third-down conversion rate flattens from 51.9% to 32.9%. When your ability to convert on third down drops a full 19% due to the absence of one guy, you definitely want that guy on the field — especially against Buffalo’s outstanding pass defense.
This 44-yard reception against the Colts in Week 12 was the big play in a day where Fuller scalded Indianapolis’ secondary for 140 yards on seven catches. One reason Houston’s offense is more successful when Fuller is on the field happens pre-snap — the Texans like to spread the defense out with wide formations, force single coverage across the board, and have Deshaun Watson throw the ball in Fuller’s general direction as Fuller is racing past whichever poor defensive back has the responsibility to keeping up with him. Here, defensive back Marvell Tell is Fuller’s huckleberry, and the Colts apparently aren’t riding with a overhead safety to that side.
Big mistake. That’s why Fuller ties up at least one deep safety on most plays, and it’s why the Texans need him out there against the Bills.