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Arkansas football can win the SEC West this year. No doubt about it. The math works.
However, it only works if you squint your eyes and some other things fall into place.
FiveThirtyEight released its data Tuesday on the likeliest teams to make the College Football Playoff. Arkansas finds itself lower in such a hierarchy than the Razorbacks do in the Associated Press or AFCA USA TODAY Coaches Poll rankings.
The Hogs have the 25th best odds.
Arkansas is ranked ahead of Arizona State in both polls and ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Sun Devils, however, have a better chance to find themselves in the Playoff by virtue of playing weaker competition week-in and week-out in the PAC 12. Arkansas has the 21st hardest schedule remaining in FBS. Arizona State has the 64th most difficult. Thus, the slotting.
If the Razorbacks were to beat Auburn on Saturday, which the FPI gives them a 60% chance to do, the Hogs’ chance to make the Playoff increases from 1% to 2%.
A loss, on the other hand, drops those odds to less than 1%, all but finishing Arkansas’ chance.
Needless to say, the 11 a.m. CT kickoff with the Tigers on Saturday is huge, not for Arkansas’ long Playoff odds, but for stacking themselves among college football’s elite.