The Seattle Mariners (10-6) begin a 3-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays (9-7) Tuesday at Tropicana Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Mariners won last year’s regular-season series against the Rays 6-1 and Seattle outscored Tampa by 17 runs in those meetings.
Seattle has won 7 of the last 9 games, which includes 3 consecutive series victories over the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals.
Tampa won its second straight series by taking 2 of 3 versus the Boston Red Sox last weekend after winning 2 of 3 at the Chicago White Sox.
Mariners at Rays projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Matt Wisler
Gilbert (2-0, 0.54 ERA) went 6 2/3-scoreless IP in Seattle’s 4-2 win over Texas Wednesday, allowing 6 H, 0 BB with 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Rays: 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 4 BB and 13 K in 2 starts.
- vs. Rays on the current roster: 4.52 FIP with a .180 expected batting average (BA), .275 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .337 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 85.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 40 plate appearances (PA).
Wisler (1-0, 2.45 ERA) will be working as the “opener” for Tampa’s bullpen day on the mound. He’s made 6 relief appearances and went 1 2/3-scoreless IP as an opener in his only start versus the Chicago Cubs April 19.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: 9.43 FIP with a .248 xBA, .363 xwOBA, .575 xSLG, 33.3 K% and 92.8 mph EV in 30 PA.
Mariners at Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Mariners at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Rays 3
Money line
LEAN to the MARINERS (+110) only because their lone loss to the Rays (-135) last season was in an identical pitching matchup with Gilbert as Seattle’s starter and Tampa using a bullpen day.
There’s more money on the Rays, but more bets have been placed on the Mariners and it’s typically better to follow the money when it’s counter to the public in sports betting.
Seattle’s lineup has been the best in baseball to start the season and the Mariners’ relief pitching has been more impressive than Tampa’s mostly due to the important arms the Rays are missing.
Gilbert is starting to pitch up to the potential Seattle saw in him when they took him in the first round of the 2018 draft. His basic pitching numbers versus the Rays weren’t impressive, but Gilbert’s pitching peripherals paint a much nicer picture of his matchup against Tampa’s lineup.
I’ll ride with the hotter team and SPRINKLE on the MARINERS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Mariners +1.5 (-190) is out of my price range even though I’d love some insurance for our Mariners ML bet. I wouldn’t hate the idea of parlaying Seattle’s RL with another similarly priced team for a better payout, but I don’t have the other leg of that parlay off the top of my head.
Over/Under
PASS because I don’t see a lot of value in this total at the current price. Both pitching staffs are elite and Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark but there are mashers in each lineup.
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