The Seattle Mariners (64-56) continue their three-game set at Globe Life Stadium against the Texas Rangers (42-77) Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle beat Texas in the series opener 3-1 Wednesday behind a strong performance from starting LHP Tyler Anderson who had 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
Season series: Mariners lead 11-6.
LHP Marco Gonzales makes his 17th start for the Mariners. Gonzales is 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA (89 IP, 43 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, CG, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 9 K against the Rangers Thursday.
- Gonzales is 1-1 against Texas this season with a 4.42 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 15 H, 3 BB and 17 K in three starts.
- vs. Rangers on the current roster (94 PA): 2.07 FIP with a .242 batting average (BA), .281 wOBA, .377 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.5 K% and 85.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Matt Foltynewicz gets the nod for the Rangers. Foltynewicz is 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA (124 IP, 78 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Texas’s 3-1 loss at the Mariners Thursday.
- Foltynewicz is 0-3 against Seattle this season with a 4.13 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in five starts.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster (122 PA): 5.06 FIP with a .207 BA, .291 wOBA, .399 xSLG, 17.2 K% and 88.9 mph EV.
Mariners at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Rangers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (-105) | Rangers +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Mariners 5, Rangers 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (-180) for a quarter unit only because there’s a line freeze with more than 80% of the action being on Seattle but the money line hasn’t moved since the opener.
The other reason for the “lean” is the price pushing itself out of the normal value range.
However, the Mariners have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen and starting pitching and hitting) hence Seattle being a massive favorite.
Also, Seattle is in contention for an AL Wild Card berth and Texas has nothing to play for so I’d rather parlay the pricy MARINERS (-180) with another favorite for a better payout.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The MARINERS -1.5 (-105) have been a great team to back on the run line on the road (35-23 ATS), in AL West contests (28-22 ATS), and as road favorites (3-2 ATS).
Conversely, the Rangers are 27-33 ATS at home, 22-23 ATS as home underdogs and 28-29 ATS in games against divisional foes.
However, Texas is covering nearly 50% of its games in the situational trends listed above and three of the five Mariners-Rangers meetings Foltynewicz has started were decided by one run.
“LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (-105) for a half unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for 1 unit because the Mariners-Rangers have cashed the Under in four of their last five meetings and both lineups rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and wOBA this month with the Rangers being in dead-last across most hitting metrics.
Furthermore, the Mariners and Rangers combined for seven or fewer runs in four of Foltynewicz’s five starts against Seattle and in two of Gonzales’ three starts vs. Texas.
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