The Seattle Mariners (82-69) and Oakland Athletics (82-69) continue a four-game AL West series at Oakland Coliseum Wednesday. First pitch is slated for at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 12-6 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 162 1/3 IP over 28 starts.
- Current Oakland batters own an aggregate .638 OPS against him.
- Has seen his K/9 and BB/9 head the wrong way over recent starts. Has 11 K and 6 BB across three starts in September. Ground-ball percentage has dropped over the same span.
- Owns a 4.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP away from Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.
LHP Cole Irvin is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. He is 10-13 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 through 164 1/3 IP spanning 29 starts.
- Yields a lot of fly balls but has been helped along by a friendly 8.8% HR/FB rate.
- Coughed up 7 ER over 2 1/3 IP at Toronto in his first start this month but has allowed just 3 ER over 13 IP since. His numbers have fallen off in the last month with a 5.90 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last six starts.
Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Athletics -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Athletics -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Athletics 6, Mariners 4
Money line (ML)
In a stretch that includes Seattle sweeping a two-game set at Oakland Aug. 23-24 and taking the first two games of this series, the Mariners are 14-5 over their last 19 road games.
The A’s were playing good ball before this series, as Oakland had been 12-8 over its previous 20 games.
Seattle holds a 10-4 lead in the season series, but there is plenty of analytic skepticism toward the Mariners’ numbers and winning percentage. The ATHLETICS (-140) are the lean, but figure the run line as having more value.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
These teams going into Wednesday with the same record presents a decent example of how records can be misleading. The Mariners have averaged 4.26 runs per game while allowing 4.64. The Athletics have scored 4.58 RPG while yielding 4.15.
Seattle has gone 31-18 in 1-run games and Oakland is just 21-25 in those spots. These figures signal a Mariners club overextended with its record.
The A’s have notched solid offensive numbers over most of the second half and have a fine .757 OPS over their last 41 games.
BACK THE ATHLETICS -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under (O/U)
Expected-ERA figures for both starters are nearly a run higher than their surface ERAs. Both sides have some Statcast quality-of-contact metrics that feed into an Over lean as well.
The Oakland bullpen has some season numbers that tease out an artificially suppressed ERA and the Seattle ‘pen has scuffled of late.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-108).
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