The Seattle Mariners (67-58) visit the Oakland Athletics (70-55) Monday to begin a three-game set at Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle prevented a three-game sweep by the Houston Astros with a 6-3 extra-innings victory Sunday and has won seven of the last 10 games.
Oakland dropped the last two of a three-game interleague set with the San Francisco Giants this past weekend and is just 3-7 over the past 10 games.
Season series: Mariners lead 6-4.
LHP Marco Gonzales makes his 18th start for the Mariners. Gonzales is 5-5 with a 4.10 ERA (94 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K Wednesday at the Texas Rangers.
- Gonzales is 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB and 10 K in two starts against Oakland this season.
RHP Paul Blackburn makes his second start for the A’s. Blackburn lost his first outing at the Chicago White Sox 3-2 Wednesday with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 3 K.
Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Athletics -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Athletics -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Mariners 4, Athletics 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the MARINERS (+115) for a half unit because they have the edge in starting and bullpen pitching.
For instance, Blackburn only gets the nod because A’s starting RHP Chris Bassitt is on the IL after taking a line drive off the head. Also, Gonzales is 2-0 in August with a 0.67 ERA (27 IP, 2 ER) and 21/4 K/BB.
Furthermore, Oakland’s lineup has been mediocre at home (23rd in wOBA and 14th in wRC+). On top of that, the A’s are just 5-7 with a minus-21.5% return on investment in home games against lefty starters as -140 favorite or less.
Lastly, I’m cool with fading the market with Seattle because the Mariners are just 3 games back of the A’s in the AL Wild Card standings, but I don’t think the betting public is hip to how feisty the Mariners are.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Even though Seattle has been money as an underdog this year with a 62.9% cover rate at 61-36 ATS, we still have to PASS on the Mariners +1.5 (-175) because their implied win probability is 63.64% at this price point. Maybe I’d lay it with Seattle’s run line if it were priced south of -160.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a quarter unit because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Under while the average Joe is betting the Over (according to Pregame.com)
In addition, Mariners are 5-12 O/U when Gonzales is on the mound, and the A’s are 4-8 O/U at home when facing a left-handed starter as a -140 favorite or lower.
However, my hesitancy is due to the slight “reverse line movement” we are seeing in the betting market. Despite more money being on the Under, the Over has the higher vig, which is a red flag.
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