The Seattle Mariners (58-54) and New York Yankees (61-49) close out a key four-game series Sunday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. Kikuchi has gone 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 120 1/3 IP across 20 starts.
- Allowed 1 run in 6 innings Tuesday at Tampa Bay and has posted a 2.93 ERA over his last five road turns. For the season, owns a 3.34 ERA away from home.
- Albeit in limited action, New York batters own an aggregate .936 OPS against him.
RHP Luis Gil is the projected starter for the Yankees. Gil is a 23-year-old rookie coming off his Major League debut, a 6-inning outing with no runs allowed against Baltimore Tuesday.
- Walked 1 while fanning 6 in his debut.
- Posted a 5.64 ERA in 30 1/3 IP at Triple-A. Allowed 4 or more earned runs in two of his last three starts prior to his call-up.
Mariners at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:48 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Yankees -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Yankees 6, Mariners 4
Money line (ML)
This set between Seattle and New York is pivotal because both teams went into the weekend figuring prominently in the AL Wild Card standings. However, it’s the Yankees who have leveraged the opportunity.
New York has taken the first three games of the series. It has been a tightly played series: the Yanks are plus-4 in run differential and two of their wins have been of the comeback variety.
New York is 15-6 since the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, the Mariners figure as a club lucky to be over .500. Seattle has scored 4.21 runs per game while yielding 4.69 RPG. They’ve benefited from a hefty 23-13 record in 1-run games (and that figure has seen some push-back in this series).
For Sunday, the Yanks are the lean in principle but Gil and a fatigued bullpen make for too much gray area at this price: PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+133).
Same calculus here, but perhaps consider just a partial-unit play with the untested Gil starting for the Yankees.
However, New York has hit Kikuchi hard before and the Yanks own a robust .767 OPS against southpaws. The price is right for the home side to bury a Seattle club which is closing out a Texas to Tampa to New York road trip.
Over/Under (O/U)
FIGURE THE OVER 9.5 (+100) AS A SLIGHT LEAN. Fatigued bullpen action with bullpen arms being seen a second time in the series, an untested Yankee hurler, and a New York offense that has picked up steam of late: it all adds up to a lean toward 10 or more runs.
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