The Los Angeles Angels (34-40) host the Seattle Mariners (34-39) Sunday at Angel Stadium for their 3-game series finale. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle is on a 5-game winning streak, which includes the first 2 games of this series with the Mariners outscoring the Angels 9-6.
L.A. has lost 4 of its last 5 games but took 4 of 5 from the Mariners in Seattle last week.
The Angels lead the season series with the Mariners 4-3 and have a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.
Mariners at Angels projected starters
LHP Marco Gonzales vs. LHP José Suarez
Gonzales is 4-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-2, Tuesday at the Oakland Athletics with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Angels: 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 3 HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 3 starts.
Suarez is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 27 IP over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-0 win in Seattle June 18 with 4 1/3-scoreless IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mariners: 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.
Mariners at Angels odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Angels -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Mariners at Angels picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 6, Angels 4
Money line
BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+115) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Angels (-140) in starting and relief pitching and hitting, and there’s a line freeze in the betting market.
Gonzales’ numbers vs. the Angels last season were much better than Suarez’s vs. the Mariners. Seattle’s bullpen ranks ahead of L.A.’s in xFIP (3.98-3.75), K/BB rate (3.46-2.86), hard-hit rate, contact rate and swinging-strike rate, according to FanGraphs.
Also, Seattle’s lineup outperforms L.A.’s vs. left-handed pitching in runs per 9 (3.76-3.61), wRC+ (104-93), wOBA (.305-.297) and BB/K rate (0.53-0.38), per FanGraphs.
Finally, more than 90% of the action is on the Angels (per Pregame.com), but their ML hasn’t budged off the opener. Common sense suggests oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so this “line freeze” could be the sportsbooks daring bettors to take the Angels.
BET the MARINERS (+115).
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
You could argue there’s value in Seattle’s alternate RL, but I’m staying away since the Mariners are just 10-18 RL as favorites. The Angels are 7-2 RL as home underdogs as well.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) since the total has been steamed up from a 9-run opener by the market, Angel Stadium is more hitter-friendly and the weather conditions forecasted are favorable.
Angel Stadium is 9th in park factor and temperatures are projected to be in the low-90s with a light breeze blowing out to right-center field.
However, I cannot fully get there on the Over since it’s almost “too popular”, L.A. is 10-18-3 O/U as home favorites, and Seattle’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]