The Seattle Mariners (32-39) head to Angel Stadium Friday to start a 3-game series with American League West co-tenant Los Angeles Angels (34-38) at 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle swept the Athletics in Oakland Tuesday-Thursday but dropped 4 of a 5-game series at home vs. L.A. last week. The Mariners are 5-5 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.
The Angels are also 5-5 SU in the last 10 and prevented a 3-game sweep at home against the Kansas City Royals with a 5-0 win Wednesday.
L.A. leads the season series with Seattle 4-1, and the Angels have a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.
Mariners at Angels projected starters
RHP Chris Flexen vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen
Flexen is 2-8 with a 4.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 72 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 4-2 home loss vs. the Angels Saturday with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 0-5 with a 4.62 ERA (37 IP, 19 ER), 5 HR, 1.49 WHIP and 5.6 K/9 in 7 starts.
Lorenzen is 6-4 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 65 IP across 11 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 8-1, June 17 at the Mariners with 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 home splits: 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 3 HR, 0.98 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 5 starts.
Mariners at Angels odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Angels -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-155) | Angels -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 6, Angels 4
Money line
BET a half-unit on the MARINERS (+125) because they have edges over the Angels (-155) in the relief pitching and hitting matchups.
Seattle’s bullpen ranks ahead of L.A.’s in xFIP (3.96-3.80), K/BB rate (3.49-3.05), hard-hit rate (39.1-36.5%) and chase rate (35.4-32.3%), according to FanGraphs.
Also, the Mariners are 28-26 SU vs. righty starters while the Angels are 25-27 SU and Seattle’s lineup outperforms L.A.’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (110-105) and BB/K rate (0.40-0.30), per FanGraphs.
Furthermore, the Mariners’ only victory over the Angels this season came with Lorenzen on the bump, and Flexen is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Angels.
BET the MARINERS (+125) but go light since they are just 10-19 SU as road underdogs.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” to the Mariners +1.5 (-155) since they are 16-13 RL as road underdogs, and the Angels -1.5 (+125) are 12-17 RL as home favorites.
However, all 5 Mariners-Angels meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs including an extra-inning affair.
Over/Under
PASS.
“Lean” Over 9.5 (-105), but all the value has been bet out of this number. The Mariners-Angels total opened at 9, and the market has hammered the Over so we’d be getting the worst of the number.
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