The Seattle Mariners (48-43) travel to Angel Stadium Friday to start a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels (45-44). First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mariners lead 6-4.
RHP Chris Flexen is Seattle’s projected starter. Flexen is 8-3 with a 3.51 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 across 16 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K Saturday against the Angels.
- Flexen is 1-0 against L.A. this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K in two starts.
- vs. Angels on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .176/.237/.294 slash line, 6/3 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.
LHP Andrew Heaney is on the rubber for the Angels. Heaney is 5-6 with a 5.38 ERA (77 IP, 46 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K July 7 vs. the Boston Red Sox.
- Heaney took a loss April 30 vs. the Mariners with a stat line of 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K in L.A.’s 7-4 loss at Seattle.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: 82 at-bats with a .305/.380/.610 slash line, 22/9 K/BB, 6 HR and 12 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Mariners at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Angels -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-135) | Angels -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Mariners 6, Angels 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the MARINERS (+145) for a half unit since I “like” their run line and Seattle has a winning record in the division and vs. left-handed starters, whereas L.A. has a losing record vs. the AL West and are 30-30 against right-handed starters.
However, the Mariners are below-.500 in away games this season and Flexen has been far more effective in Seattle than on the road while the Angels are 26-20 in L.A. this year.
Also, if this game is close late, I expect the Mariners to pull it out since they have much better bullpen pitching (second in WAR and the Angels rank 22nd in WAR) and are 19-8 in one-run games this season.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the MARINERS +0.5 (+105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Seattle has a significant edge in the starting pitching department and this is a solid price point given that matchup.
Heaney’s pitching peripherals vs. Seattle are much worse than Flexen’s against L.A.
For instance, Heaney has a 6.41 FIP, .383 expected wOBA and .544 expected slugging percentage against active Mariners hitters.
While Flexen has a 4.05 FIP, .214 expected wOBA and .241 expected slugging percentage vs. current Angels batters.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because the angle I’m using to back the Mariners in this spot is their edge in starting and bullpen pitching, but the situational trends suggest an Over so I’m just going to stay away from the total.
The Angels are a top-7 lineup in the majors at home in the advanced hitting metrics of hard-hit rate, wOBA, OPS and wRC+ and they have an MLB-high 64.4% Over rate at home this season (29-16-1 O/U record).
On the other side, the Mariners have the second-highest Over rate this season on the road at 63.4% (26-15-1 O/U record).
Plus Heaney and Flexen went head-to-head in Seattle’s 7-4 April 30 victory and that went Over the 8-run total.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]