The Seattle Mariners (25-31) try to take the series against the Houston Astros (36-20) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: The Astros lead the season series 6-5.
The teams have split the first 2 games of the series with the M’s winning 7-4 Monday and the Astros winning 4-1 Tuesday.
Astros ace Justin Verlander shut things down Tuesday with 12 Ks in 7 IP after Mariners C Cal Raleigh had a career day Monday with a home run and 4 RBI. Something has to give in this back-and-forth between bitter AL West rivals that had a little extra-curricular activity Monday when benches cleared. Could there be fireworks Wednesday?
Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Jose Urquidy
Gilbert (5-2, 2.22 ERA) makes his 12th start in what has been a great start to his sophomore year. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.
- Utilizes a 96-mph fastball, slider, curve and changeup. Gilbert misses barrels as he’s in the 81st percentile in barrel percentage.
- Shut down the Astros May 28 by tossing 7 scoreless innings, allowing 4 H with 5 K.
- Current Astros hitting .278 against him over 74 plate appearances. That’s a little inflated because he has had trouble with just a couple of players.
Urquidy (3-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 51 IP.
- He’s 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP in 6 career games (5 starts) against Seattle.
- Faced Gilbert and the Mariners May 28 and allowed 5 ER on 12 H, 2 BB and 4 K in 4 1/3 innings.
- Current Mariners have hit him at a .333 clip over 77 PA. However, there hasn’t been a lot of damage against him with 1 HR and 7 doubles.
Mariners at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:49 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $10)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Astros 3
Money line
The Mariners won this same pitching matchup just 11 days ago. Urquidy has allowed 3 ER or more in 4 of his last 7 starts, including one against the Mariners. The M’s are improving, led by rookie OF Julio Rodriguez, who went 3-for-5 with a double in that May 28 game. Seattle has won 6 of its last 10, and Houston isn’t the powerhouse it has been in recent years with the 21st-ranked offense. LEAN MARINERS (+120).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Mariners’ run line is too expensive at -175. So let’s look at some potential prop bets. Astros 2B Jose Altuve is 6-for-11 (.545) with 3 doubles and 1 HR against Gilbert. Astros 3B Alex Bregman is 5-for-8 (.625) with a double against him. Bregman (+112) and Altuve (-116) OVER 1.5 total bases are a couple of options either as standalone prop bets or in a parlay. I also like MARINERS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+145) with their edge on the bump.
Over/Under
The Under has cashed the last 4 times Gilbert started with an O/U over 7 runs. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the 2 teams. The May 28 game was a 6-0 nothing Under hit. It’s only a LEAN, but I prefer the UNDER 8.5 (-112).
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