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It’s been well-documented that Sean McVay typically errs on the side of caution when it comes to fourth down. Throughout his coaching career, he’s played it conservatively when given the chance to keep the offense on the field on fourth down.
Advanced analytics showed earlier this season that his calls on fourth were actually hurting the Rams, particularly against the Cardinals when he punted and attempted a field goal on two fourth-and-short situations where going for it would’ve given his team a better chance to win.
On Sunday against the Giants, McVay showed a more aggressive side. He called a fake punt, went for it on fourth down in the red zone and also kept the offense out there later in the game, converting each time. During an appearance on the “Coach McVay Show” Monday, McVay acknowledged that he’s seeing more opportunities for the Rams to go for it on fourth down, highlighting Matthew Stafford’s touchdown to Cooper Kupp in the second quarter to put the Rams up 14-3.
“It was based on some different things and kind of the preparation. I thought our coaches did a great job of really putting together a good plan,” McVay said. “The fourth down, I thought we were going to punch it on that third down but they did a good job making the stop. It’s a 7-3 game right there, you’re feeling like, OK, does 10-3 do something? Or do we have a chance to go 14-3 based on the look, what we had thought and the confidence in our players. I think there are some times – I’ll always try to look at myself critically with some of the game-day decisions – and I think there are some more opportunities, particularly on fourth downs without being reckless that you can give Matthew and our offense another shot. And that was one of those that we felt like there was a play that would be a good answer based on what we anticipated defensively right there.”
With Stafford now under center, McVay is seeing the value of having a veteran quarterback with excellent awareness and feel in the pocket. Even when a play breaks down, Stafford is able to go through his reads and find an open receiver, something Jared Goff struggled with.
That’s critical in high-leverage situations where decision-making could be the difference in converting or turning the ball over on downs. And now that McVay has coached Stafford for six games, he seems to be gaining confidence in the quarterback’s ability to pick up the necessary yardage on fourth down.
It goes beyond just Stafford, too. The offensive line is blocking well, the running backs are picking up blitzers and the receivers are getting open.
“It always boils down to the confidence in players,” he said. “Had confidence in their ability to execute and again, that’s a situation where Matthew and Cooper deliver. But if you really look at it, they’re bringing an edge pressure, (Austin) Corbett and (Rob) Havenstein do an excellent job of fanning out to that edge on kind of a little roll out and we were able to deliver. I thought that was a big momentum shift to get up 14-3 in that situation there.”
Hopefully this is the start of a philosophy shift for McVay. There are going to be games down the stretch that are much closer than Sunday’s 38-11 win over the Giants, and fourth-down conversions could be the difference between winning and losing.
That’s not to say the Rams should go for it every time on fourth down, but in short-yardage situations on the opponent’s side of the field, it’s a worthwhile risk.
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