Starting fast is a common theme for Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams every season. McVay has begun each of his first five seasons with a 3-1 record as the Rams offense has flourished in the first month, whether it was with Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
In recent weeks, the Rams have sputtered in all three phases of the game, losing three games in a row for just the second time in the McVay era. While plenty of people are concerned with the sudden decline of the offense over the past month, this has been a recurring trend since McVay arrived in Los Angeles.
Since 2017, the Rams have declined dramatically in EPA/play, dropback EPA and rushing success rate from Week 9 on, as shown in the chart below (click the tweet for the full chart).
Following up on something posted yesterday: The midseason decline in the McVay-Rams offense isn't something anecdotal. During the McVay era, there has been a clear, dramatic break from week 9 onwards.
EPA/Play: 2nd to 19th
Dropback EPA: 2nd to 21st
Rush Sucess: 1st to 12th pic.twitter.com/v8J1yIXS6r— Ollie Connolly (@OllieConnolly) November 30, 2021
McVay has been a fantastic coach for the Rams and he’s shifted the entire culture in Los Angeles in recent years. But there isn’t a single coach in the NFL that is void of criticism, especially when McVay continues to get in his own way.
I understand that Stafford brings a lot more to the table than Goff, but that doesn’t mean that McVay should toss out everything that he had success with when Goff was under center. The lack of play-action passes this season is alarming, considering it has been shown that play-action passes can be effective in creating big plays on offense in the NFL right now.
So if anyone is wondering one of the reasons why the dropback game is declining right now, Stafford and the offensive line are being asked to do too much in spread formations. Even if the run game isn’t consistently working, I believe some play action from under center could remedy some of the team’s current issues.
Some people have questioned whether or not McVay has been ‘figured out’ in recent years due to multiple reasons. These metrics certainly don’t help his case and there’s no doubt that he could improve on adjusting his play-calling as the season progresses.
The good news for McVay is that these numbers aren’t set in stone as he and the Rams have six more weeks this season to change the narrative around this offense. This week’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars is a perfect one for McVay and company to build a foundation for the rest of the season.