With the divisional round of the playoffs ready to kick off, here are a few important statistical notes for Saturday’s games that could go a long way to deciding which teams advance to the conference championships.
Vikings at 49ers
This season, Kirk Cousins has been by far the NFL’s most prolific boot-action quarterback. This is a definite product of assistant head coach and offensive advisor Gary Kubiak, who has long worked heavy boot-action concepts into his offenses. Per Sports Info Solutions, Cousins has attempted 56 boot-action passes, completing 40 for 663 yards, an NFL-high seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t used boot-action quite as often, but maybe he should — he’s attempted 29 passes, completing 22 for 436 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.
One other thing Cousins and Garoppolo have in common? They’ve thrown the most passes this season out of 21 personnel — two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers. Garoppolo has completed 80 of 109 passes out of 21 personnel for 1,055 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Cousins has completed 53 of 82 passes for 664 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception out of 21 personnel.
San Francisco has been limping along on defense over the last few weeks. With injuries taking pass-rusher Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander, and safety Jaquiski Tartt out of the lineup, the 49ers went from transcendent to normal in a big hurry.
In weeks 1-12, San Francisco allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a QBR of 72.50, and only the Patriots were better at 50.55. The 49ers allowed a Positive Play Rate (plays in which the Expected Points Added were above zero) of 37%, and only New England was better at 36%. Per Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers’ defense saved 188.5 points below the average, and opposing offenses had minus -140.3 EPA against them. Again, only the Patriots were better in either category.
No defense allowed fewer completions (198) or passing yards (1,854), and though there was a vulnerability in touchdowns allowed (11), matching the interception total with 11 seemed to make that problem go away. The 49ers were 10-1 after 12 weeks, their only loss in overtime to Seattle, and the defense was the biggest part of that success equation.
From Weeks 13-17, only the Redskins, Colts, and Dolphins allowed more passing touchdowns than San Francisco’s 12, which tied them with the Giants for third-worst in the NFL. The 49ers have just one interception in that time period, they’ve allowed an opposing QBR of 100.5, their Positive Play Rate allowed jumped to 49%, their EPA allowed shot up to 32.2 (second-worst in the league ahead of only the Lions), and they ended the season with a 3-2 record. The 49ers hope to have all three of those defensive starters ready for the playoffs, and that will be mandatory if Kyle Shanahan’s team is to live up to its early potential.
Speaking of pass defense, Vikings safety Anthony Harris is the only player in the NFL this season with seven interceptions and no touchdowns allowed. Garoppolo, who has struggled at times with safety reads throughout his career, had better be on the lookout for Harris all day.
Titans at Ravens
It will come as no surprise to anyone who’s watched Lamar Jackson this week that he’s the NFL’s most dynamic outside runner. This season, he’s averaged 8.9 yards per attempt on runs to the outside of the tackles, and he’s taken 69% of his 176 rushing attempts there. When running off-tackle, which he has done 24% of the time, he’s averaged 5.4 yards per carry, and when running inside, which he’s done just 7% of the time, he averages 4.9 yards per carry.
The relatively good news for the Titans is that they’ve been very good at limiting outside runs, ranking seventh in the NFL with a 4.4 yards per carry allowed. The relatively bad news for the Titans is that they’ve not seen an outside runner like Jackson.
One thing the Titans love to do to try and confuse quarterbacks post-snap is to spin one of their safeties into a two-deep look. The quarterback is under the impression that he’s facing single-high coverage, and all of a sudden, he’s not. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees will also spin a cornerback, such as Logan Ryan, into that position.
This season, against single-high coverage (Cover-1 and Cover-3), Jackson completed 142 of 225 passes for 1,827 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Only Kirk Cousins had more touchdown passes against single-high coverage. Against two-high looks (Cover-2, Man Cover-2, Cover-4, and Cover-6), Jackson completed 79 of 116 passes for 890 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. So, it’s pick your poison against Jackson as a passer (which we don’t talk about nearly enough; the guy led the NFL in touchdown passes this season), and that complicates defensive efforts against Baltimore’s league-leading run game. But defensive disguise should help — a bit.
Baltimore’s defense loves to blitz — they led the league with a 54.9% blitz rate this season. But Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been unmoved by the blitz efforts of previous defenses. This season, Tannehill has completed 55 of 79 passes for 761 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception against the blitz.
Tennessee’s most disturbing trend — the one that they must turn around in this game if they are to win — is a serious backslide in run defense. Per NFL Research, in their first eight games, the Titans allowed 96.5 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per attempt, three rushing touchdowns, sixteen 10-yard rushing plays, and no 100-yard rushers. In their last nine games, including their wild-card win over the Patriots, the Titans have allowed 110.9 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, 12 rushing touchdowns, twenty-five rushing plays of 10 yards or more, and two 100-yard rushers. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Baltimore won’t take massive advantage of this weakness.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”