Why San Jose State Will Win
– Nick Starkel. Josh Love came up with a big season at quarterback for the Spartans last year, and it wasn’t going to be easy replacing a guy who threw for almost 4,000 yards with 22 touchdown passes and eight picks. Starkel bounced around from Texas A&M to Arkansas to San Jose State, but he’s a veteran with a good arm, enough experience to matter, and he’s been exactly what the offense needs hitting 65% of his passes for 1,906 yards and 16 touchdowns with four picks.
The Ball State pass defense has allowed 250 yards or more six of the seven games so far. It’s about to get hammered again.
– The Spartans are doing this with great line play. The offensive front is giving Starkel plenty of time to work, and the defensive line was one of the best in the country both against the run and at getting to the quarterback. Ball State allows way too many sacks – the Spartan defensive front will feast.
– It’s not fair to suggest that Ball State lives on turnover margin, but it’s a major factor to the success. The Cardinals are +6 on the year with ten takeaways over the last four games, but San Jose State doesn’t turn the ball over enough to matter. The Spartans have spread out five turnovers over the seven games, and they have yet to lose a fumble.
Why Ball State Will Win
– The Ball State offense is terrific. Even with star RB Caleb Huntley opting out early on to get ready for the NFL, the offense was just fine with a decent running game and a solid season from QB Drew Plitt. He kept the offense moving, kept the picks to just one in every game but in the win over Western Michigan – when he didn’t give away any – and he has the receiving corps to keep bombing away. And …
– For all of the good things the San Jose State defense has done, it’s been getting hit hard through the air, giving up over 220 yards in every game but the opener against run-only Air Force. The Cardinals are good at moving the chains, they don’t make a whole lot of mistakes, and there aren’t any fumbles with just one on the year. Plitt is the veteran passer who can hold up through this as long as he doesn’t have to press.
– The Cardinals have to keep the chains moving. They don’t have to be explosive, but Plitt has to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry against the San Jose State pass rush. The Ball State offense only failed to get past a 42% third down conversion rate twice. It does a great job of closing out drives with points and taking advantage of every opportunity. That starts with third down conversions.